AI's future relies on carbon reduction: a pivotal development
In the race towards a more sustainable future, tech giants are recognising the importance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as a critical component. However, the current CDR capacity procured by these tech companies represents less than 0.4% of the annual volume needed by mid-century, highlighting the need for urgent action.
The demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) has led to a massive buildout of data centers, power generation, fiber networks, and cooling systems. This AI buildout offers a unique alignment of capital, planning timelines, and technological ambition, and companies betting their future on AI should embed carbon removal into their infrastructure strategies.
Microsoft, Google, and Stripe are among the tech companies making early commitments to CDR. Microsoft has procured more than 30 million metric tons of CDR, while Google and Stripe have collectively committed around 2.1 million metric tons.
The carbon removal industry could be worth up to $1.2 trillion annually by 2050. However, the industry is currently building nowhere near the pace required due to financing and demand issues. To address this, governments must act to speed up permitting, invest in enabling infrastructure, and integrate CDR into compliance frameworks.
The CEO and co-founder of Supercritical, Michelle You, argues that what we build today will determine whether CDR becomes one of the most consequential commodities of the 21st century or a missed opportunity. An industrial ecosystem for CDR will be required, including biochar pyrolysis machines, direct air capture plants, geological storage, monitoring systems, and more.
Capacity planning for CDR should be similar to that for AI infrastructure. This means forecasting emissions from future workloads and securing CDR capacity early. Data centers planned for 2025-2030 provide a unique opportunity to co-develop CDR infrastructure.
Regulatory requirements for CDR are emerging in Europe and will likely follow in other jurisdictions, potentially including carbon border adjustments for trade compliance. Companies involved in commissioning CDR infrastructure include Climeworks, specialising in direct air capture (DAC) technology, with a CCS plant commissioned in June 2025 as part of the Cicero research project.
Tech companies are investing tens of billions into infrastructure they anticipate needing in the future. By 2050, the world will need to remove 5 to 10 billion metric tons of CDR annually to stay on track for net zero. Procurement of CDR should involve multi-year offtake agreements with diversified portfolios of high-integrity suppliers.
The future of AI and tech relies on a sustainable carbon footprint. CDR must be treated as a required input to emissions-intensive growth, not as a one-off corporate social responsibility expense. Public support and large buyers played a key role in commercialising solar and wind, and similar dynamics could lower costs and build a foundation for the CDR market.
In conclusion, the urgency for CDR cannot be overstated. The tech industry, governments, and the public must work together to accelerate the development and deployment of CDR technologies. The potential for CDR to become a trillion-dollar industry and a key component of the infrastructure stack for AI to scale without increasing corporate emissions is immense. The decisions we make today will determine our future.
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