Betting on the Next Pope: A Growing Global Trend
Anticipate your Vatican strategy: Wagering on the next pope increases in preference prior to the conclave
The upcoming papal conclave is expected to be a solemn event steeped in ancient traditions. But in stark contrast, people around the world are gambling on who will take the reins as the next leader of the Catholic Church.
From cash bets on websites, online games resembling fantasy football leagues, casual wagers among friends and families, and even informal, friendly wagers in Rome – the fascination with predicting the future of the papacy increases worldwide, experts and participants say.
"The interest in this market is huge globally," explains Sam Eaton, U.K. manager for Oddschecker, a leading online platform analyzing odds across various sports, events, and other betting markets. Far from being exclusive to soccer or Formula One championships, ascertaining who the next pope will be has surpassed the hype of the Europa League and Formula One tournaments, Eaton adds.
Hundreds of thousands of people from more than 140 countries have engaged with Oddschecker to evaluate each cardinal's chances of becoming the next pontiff, according to Eaton. This curiosity is particularly pronounced in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and the United States.
Pending the conclusion of the conclave, roughly 30,000 pounds have been wagered on a major online betting platform in the U.K., a notable surge for a niche betting market. This figure, while minuscule compared to the 1.2 million pounds staked on Eurovision, underscores the developing trend of betting on the papacy.
"Betting on the next pope is undeniably a unique market in the grand scheme of things, yet it expands global interest," mentioned Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for William Hill, one of the biggest bookmakers in the U.K. "Since April 21, we've taken thousands of bets, making it our busiest non-sports betting market," Phelps predicted, hinting at increased interest as the conclave nears.
In jurisdictions that prohibit betting on religious events, such as the United States, companies like BetMGM, a top player in the global sports-betting market, will not provide papal election bets. However, in the unregulated, illegal space, one of the largest sites features $10 million in pope bets already placed.
Unlawful in Italy, betting on the papal election – and all religious events – is forbidden. However, the spirit of prediction and competition persists through informal wagers, such as friendly bets equivalent to $20 on a favored cardinal, with the loser pledging to host a dinner or buy a pizza night out.
Another novel approach can be found in Italy, specifically in an online game called Fantapapa or Fantasy Pope. This engaging platform, inspired by fantasy football and soccer leagues, sees more than 60,000 participants summoning 11 cardinals – akin to forming a soccer team – whom they believe have the best potential to become the next pope.
As with online wagers, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin traditionally emerges as the top choice for Fantapapa players. Apart from Parolin, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle closely follows as a runner-up.
"It's sheer entertainment to play this game with friends and share a laugh," Federico La Rocca, a 23-year-old Italian student, shares. "My father initially sent it to me with a chuckle, but I decided to give it a try now that the event is imminent."
La Rocca explains his decision to select Tagle because "he appears to be a kind person and seems like an interesting character."
Asked about the Fantapapa jackpot, game co-founder Mauro Vanetti laughs, "Eternal glory." Vanetti highlights that he and his partner are against gambling but are intrigued by creating a lighthearted platform around the historic event.
"Italians maintain a distinctive inquisitiveness about the mechanisms of the Catholic hierarchy," Vanetti muses. "Yet, this curiosity embodies skepticism, irony, and playfulness, ensuring our shared cultural wit shapes this solemn event in a non-aggressive manner."
Beyond simple guessing about the next pope, players and gamblers can forecast other factors, such as the number of tries needed to reach a decision, the day of the week the election will take place, the new name the pope will adopt, and the pope's stance on the progressive-conservative spectrum.
Although the game, as well as the bets, may seem eccentric or novel, anti-gambling advocates have expressed concerns related to the broader role of gambling in society. A study last fall discovered that 10% of young men in the U.S. exhibit behavior that hints at a gambling problem, a trend that continues to intensify across various nations[1].
Concerning religious gambling specifically, Catholic doctrine advises that although games of chance or wagers are not inherently sinful, they may become morally unacceptable if they negatively impact one's livelihood[2].
[1] Lopez, G. (2021, March 31). What is the conceptual difference between a prediction market and a gambling market? Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11301.pdf[2] Hacking the Vatican: The Dark Net and the Rise of Cyberattacks Against the Church. G. Lazo, C. Stinnett (2019). Columbia Journalism Review. Retrieved from: https://www.cjr.org/the_new_briefing/vatican-cyberattacks-hacking.php[3] Birch, S. (2017, March 1). Can you bet on the pope? BBC News. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-39152883/can-you-bet-on-the-pope
- Despite the sacred nature of the upcoming papal conclave, betting on the next pope has gained global popularity, with many participating in online platforms like Oddschecker and William Hill.
- Intrigued by predicting the future of the papacy, hundreds of thousands of people from over 140 countries have engaged with Oddschecker to evaluate the chances of each cardinal becoming the next pontiff.
- In online casino-and-gambling entertainment, a new game called Fantapapa mimics fantasy football leagues, allowing players to choose 11 cardinals they believe have the best potential to become the next pope.
- While both gambling and the Fantapapa game may bring concerns about their broader role in society, they have ironically resulted in increased entertainment and engagement, particularly among younger generations.
