Anticipated Battle: Pre-match Analyses and Pooled Bets for UFC Fight Night Featuring Kape vs Almabayev
LOUD MOUTH LEO'S UFC BREAKDOWN MARCH 1, 2025 The UFC heads back to the Apex in Las Vegas for a bonking night of fights, headlined by two piping hot Flyweight fighters: Manel "The Killer" Kape and Asu "The Alien" Almabayev. These two bruisers are smack in the midst of their prime careers, and a victory for either could mean a chance to take on some big guns in the Flyweight division, like Tatsuro Taira, Amir Albazi, or even Brandon Royval.
There ain't no ranked fighters on the main card, but don't let that fool ya - there's still plenty of juicy betting opportunities for UFC Fight Night 253. We've got a lightweight card, literally and figuratively, with the heaviest fighters competing in the welterweight division. The smaller Apex cage has the top UFC betting experts predicting a whole lot of forced submissions.
Manel Kape vs Asu Almabayev
March 1, Saturday @ UFC Apex, Las Vegas
*Stream it on ESPN+ or with a UFC Pass*
Manel Kape, the 6th ranked Flyweight in the UFC, is favored to win this bout, but it might be a bit closer than people think. Kape has fought in 27 slugfests, with 20 wins and 7 losses. He usually triumphs via knockout, demolishing his foes with body kicks, punches, and flying knees outta nowhere. He snagged a TKO in December 2024 against Bruno Gustavo da Silva, but lost his previous fight to Muhammad Mokaev, who promptly royally fucked off to the Brave Combat Federation.
KO/TKO/DQ
The only issue with the fave is that Almabayev is a whole different breed of cat, and in a better winning streak right now. The Kazakh fighter, currently ranked 8th in the Flyweight division, hasn't lost a single fight since 2017, and has only tasted defeat twice in his 23 professional battles. He's a tough nut to wear down, and all 3 of his fights in 2024 ended in a unanimous decision victory. Although Almabayev honed his craft in the Brave Combat Federation, he's mastered the art of forcing submissions.
180
Betting Odds
1800
The fight's scheduled for 5 rounds, and the over/under on total rounds is set at 4.5, which is pretty high. The most probable outcomes, according to the top UFC betting apps, are Kape either winning by KO or by decision, given his UFC experience and tough opponents leading up to this fight. But Almabayev isn't one to sleep on - he's a crafty submission artist, and Kape has been forced to tap only twice in his career, the last time back in 2017.
Here's how the betting odds shake down:
Submission
| Method of Victory | Manuel Kape | Asu Almabayev || --- | --- | --- || KO/TKO/DQ | 180 | 1,800 || Submission | 1,000 | 1,200 || Decision | 180 | 250 |
1000
Almabayev has a crackerjack takedown average, and his last two fights were at the UFC Apex. Kape has only submitted twice in his career, and Almabayev has lost just once by decision and once by KO. There's a tiny possibility that Almabayev could slip in a submission, or Kape could dominate the Kazakh warrior, but we think they'll make it to at least 3 and a half rounds. If we had to pick a winner, we'd go with Kape, who's more experienced and bet on him to win by decision.
1200
Over 3.5 Rounds @ -230
Manel Kape Win via Decision @ +180
Decision
Lighter Divisions, Smaller Cages - More Submissions?
180
The middleweight fight between Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez caught our eye, as their fighting styles contrast significantly. Brundage has been in 17 stoush, winning 10 and losing 6 times, with one no contest. He's a Muay Thai beast who can do a number on his opponents, weakening them quickly. Marquez is on a 3-fight losing streak, and he specializes in forcing submissions. The odds suggest the fight won't go the distance, and we reckon Marquez can capitalize on the close confines of the Apex to force a submission against Brundage.
250
Julian Marquez via Submission @ +250
Another fascinating tussle is the one between Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson in the welterweight division. Both lads are in their late twenties and looking to make their mark, with a win on March 1 potentially catapulting them into the big leagues. Barlow is the odds-on favorite, having fought 9 times and never losing. He's secured 5 KOs in his 9 wins, clinching his UFC contract in 2023 after beating Raheem Forest in the DWCS. Patterson is also a Dana White Contender Series alumni, having competed in some pretty epic events, like Strickland vs Du Plessis 1 and Edwards vs Muhammad 2 in 2024. He's only lost once in his career, and he's a submission specialist.
We're backing the underdog in this one, but we wouldn't bet on him to force a submission, as it's a real chore getting close to Barlow without eating a bunch of body shots. But we're confident the English fighter can pull off an upset against Barlow.
Sam Patterson Moneyline @ +230
Parley Picks
We've got two parlay picks for you to test out, combining the headline fight with the other two fights on the main card. The parlay picks are totally separate, so theoretically, they can both win, but they're both high-risk, high-reward plays. You can always mix and match those picks into an SGP bet on the Kape-Almabayev fight or come up with an alternate parlay, adjusting the risk to your comfort level. Just make sure you've got a parlay odds calculator handy, so you can see how the odds change when tampering with your bet slip.
Manuel Kape via Decision Julian Marquez via Submission - Potential payout: 880, Risk: HighOver 3.5 Rounds Sam Patterson Moneyline - Potential payout: 416, Risk: Medium
This card might not be stacked with household names, but the betting value is generally higher when there are more unknowns. If you've got any thoughts or tips of your own, holler at us on our Twitter account, and we'll catch all the UFC action as it unfolds.
Daniel Craymer Daniel is a sports editor at [our website], and he's always a betting rascal - he's constantly checking out new and existing betting platforms with his bet predictions and is always hunting for good deals. His cautious approach to sports gambling and careful use of betting tools can be valuable to anyone looking to refine their sports betting strategy.
- Despite Almabayev's impressive winning streak and submission expertise, Kape's experience and striking prowess make him a likely favorite in the UFC Fight Night 253 main event.
- The smaller Apex cage could potentially force more submissions, which might benefit Almabayev, but Kape's ability to win by KO or decision might prove crucial in this bout.
- Although Kape is predicted to win by decision, the over/under on total rounds being 4.5 might indicate a close fight, raising the possibility of additional rounds.
- In the lighter divisions, the contrasting fighting styles of Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez in the middleweight division could lead to a submission victory for Marquez, given the small Apex cage.
