Artificial Intelligence developed by NASA and IBM assists researchers in predicting solar flares and subsequent storms.
The Solar Dynamics Observatory, launched in 2010, has been continuously observing the Sun for the past 15 years, providing valuable data for scientific research. This data has been instrumental in the development of Surya, an open-source AI model designed to improve solar forecasting technologies.
IBM and NASA jointly released Surya, which was trained on nine years of high-resolution solar observation data gathered by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Surya is capable of predicting a solar flare two hours in advance and visually pinpointing its location on the Sun's surface. It achieves this by generating an image of an event that the SDO satellite is likely to see, predicting what the surface of the Sun will look like hours ahead.
Testing showed that Surya can predict a solar flare two hours in advance with a 16% improvement in flare classification accuracy. Juan Bernabé-Moreno, director of IBM Research Europe for Ireland and the U.K., stated that understanding solar events is crucial for predicting their occurrence and being prepared. He expressed excitement following the release of Surya, looking forward to the scientific community beginning to use it on a wider scale.
Surya's potential applications extend beyond just solar forecasting. The use of Surya by the scientific community is expected to create new applications and challenge its capabilities. IBM plans to explore continuous training and other fine-tuning with data from Solar Cycle 25. They are also investigating the accuracy of even longer lead time predictions with Surya.
The importance of Surya's predictions becomes apparent when considering the potential impacts of solar storms. Geomagnetic storms, triggered by these events when Earth is hit, can damage or disrupt satellites, power grids, and radio communication systems, according to NASA. A severe solar storm could result in losses to the global economy of $2.4 trillion over a five-year period, according to a systemic risk analysis by Lloyd's.
Recently, local and national officials participated in a first-of-its-kind tabletop exercise to test their readiness for a severe solar storm. Anticipating these outbursts gives decision-makers critical lead time to protect vulnerable infrastructure. Surya's ability to predict solar flares two hours in advance provides such a lead time, offering a valuable tool for disaster preparedness.
In a violent solar environment, Surya offers a beacon of hope for more accurate and timely predictions of solar storms. Its open-source nature encourages collaboration and innovation within the scientific community, paving the way for improved solar forecasting technologies and a more resilient future.
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