Brazil desires guarantees before any conversation between Lula and Trump, recalling the Zelensky incident
In a significant turn of events, the relationship between the United States and Brazil has reached a low point not seen in decades. The ongoing dispute between the two nations centers primarily on trade and political disagreements.
Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to impose a 50% tariff on most Brazilian imports, effective August 1, 2025. This decision, criticized by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is linked to Brazil’s legal prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of attempting a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election. Trump has publicly condemned the trial as a "witch hunt," describing the tariffs as politically motivated support for Bolsonaro and the pro-American opposition in Brazil.
Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has stated that any potential phone call between Lula and Trump would require clear guarantees to prevent Lula from being humiliated. Haddad also referred to an "embarrassing episode" involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's harsh criticism by Trump and then-Vice President J.D. Vance as a point of concern.
The U.S. investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 was also initiated in July 2025 to examine alleged unfair Brazilian trade practices, raising concerns about further economic retaliation. Exemptions from tariffs include important Brazilian exports like aircraft, orange juice, and energy products.
The broader context includes Brazil’s increasing alignment with China and a perceived decline of U.S. influence in Latin America, which analysts interpret as a motive for the U.S.’ use of economic coercion.
Meanwhile, diplomatic relations between Washington and Pretoria remain strained due to strong opposition from both the Trump and Biden administrations towards South Africa’s racial equity policies and its stance on the Gaza conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio boycotted a G20 foreign ministers' meeting in South Africa earlier this year, and Trump has announced that he may skip the G20 summit scheduled to be held in South Africa this November, citing his disapproval of the country’s domestic and foreign policies.
Trump also criticized South Africa’s land reform efforts and its legal action at the International Court of Justice. In May, he accused South African President Cyril Ramaphosa of supporting "white genocide" and unlawful land seizures during a White House meeting.
The potential trade war is part of Trump's wider campaign to overhaul U.S. trade policy, applying maximum pressure on foreign partners to win more favorable terms for the U.S. However, the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Brazil, as well as South Africa, could have far-reaching implications for global trade and geopolitical alignments.
[1] ABC News. (2025). Trump Announces Tariffs on Brazilian Imports. [online] Available at: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/trump-announces-tariffs-brazilian-imports-77799657
[2] CNN. (2025). Brazil Slams US Tariffs as Interference in Justice System. [online] Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/20/americas/brazil-us-tariffs-intl/index.html
[3] Reuters. (2025). Brazil-US Tensions Escalate Over Trade and Politics. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-us-tensions-escalate-over-trade-politics-2025-07-21/
[4] The Guardian. (2025). Brazil Ready to Retaliate Against US Tariffs, Says Lula. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/21/brazil-ready-to-retaliate-against-us-tariffs-says-lula
[5] The New York Times. (2025). Brazil-U.S. Relations at Lowest Point in Decades. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/world/americas/brazil-us-relations.html
- Migration between the U.S. and Brazil may decrease due to the ongoing political tensions, according to experts.
- The imposition of tariffs on Brazilian imports by the U.S. could result in big-wins for domestic industries in both countries, analysts suggest.
- War-and-conflicts in regions like South America are often influenced by economic coercion and political disagreements between nations.
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