Calgary Stampeders considered the most probable Grey Cup champions based on CFL playoff probability rankings
The Canadian Football League (CFL) is approaching the midway point of the season, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. According to the latest playoff probability rankings, the Calgary Stampeders are virtually assured of qualifying for the postseason with a 99.94% chance. They are closely followed by Saskatchewan (99.88%), Winnipeg (96.17%), and Hamilton (95.52%).
In the West Division, Calgary currently leads with an impressive 8-3 record. The Stampeders also have the best odds to win the 2025 Grey Cup, followed closely by the Saskatchewan Roughriders with the second-best odds. The B.C. Lions and Edmonton Elks, however, are struggling, with less than a 1% chance to win the Grey Cup and a 15.80% and 44.70% chance, respectively, of missing the playoffs.
In the East Division, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are currently leading with an 8-5 record and a 75.84% chance to win their division. The Tiger-Cats also have the third-best odds to win the Grey Cup, behind Calgary and Saskatchewan. The Montreal Alouettes, who are currently 5-7, could potentially tie the Tiger-Cats for first in the East on Saturday. If this happens, the Alouettes' chances of winning the division would improve significantly, although tie-breaker criteria such as season series and points differential would come into play.
The Tiger-Cats also have a 55.12% chance of reaching the Grey Cup game. The likeliest Grey Cup matchups are Calgary versus Hamilton (27.81%) or Saskatchewan versus Hamilton (23.51%). The Toronto Argonauts and Ottawa Redblacks have single-digit chances to win the Grey Cup, with the Argonauts having the better odds of the two.
It's important to note that these odds could change significantly after Week 14, so fans should stay tuned for updates as the season progresses. The CFL is always full of surprises, and anything can happen in the final stretch of the season.
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