Catholic Leader Betting Losers Faced with Pope Francis' Demise, Total Loss of $1 Million

Catholic Leader Betting Losers Faced with Pope Francis' Demise, Total Loss of $1 Million

Posted on: April 21, 2025, 01:57h.Last updated on: April 21, 2025, 02:26h.

Bye Bye, Pope Francis! A Look at the Contenders for the Next Pope, and the Bets on This Jaw-Dropping Event

Pope Francis is dead, and the world is buzzing with excitement as Catholics across the globe prepare for the election of the next leader of their faith.

The 88-year-old Argentinian Pontiff, Jorge Mario Bergoglio, passed away on Easter Monday, just hours after delivering his blessing during the Easter mass at St. Peter's Square.

Francis is the first Latin American pontiff, a role he held since March 13, 2025. His death sets off a series of rites that will culminate in cardinals gathering in the Sistine Chapel to choose his successor, a process that usually takes 15 days or less.

The Bet of the Century

The prediction wagering exchange, Polymarket, has found itself in the headlines after predicting such an event. In February, they launched a market asking bettors if there would be a new pope in 2025, and more than $1 million was bet on the contract "No new pope in 2025." Now, the death of Pope Francis means those shares have an implied value of just about 1%.

Currently, there are over $2.7 million in outcomes riding on the "Who will be the next pope?" market, with $1.006 million staked on "no new pope."

The Favorites

Among the front-runners are Pietro Parolin, 70, the retired Cardinal Secretary of State, and Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, another progressive leader with views similar to Francis' own on issues such as supporting LGBTQ+ members and divorced Catholics. Parolin is leading the odds with an implied probability of 36%, while Tagle is close behind at 26%.

The Wild West of Wagering

Unlike other platforms, Polymarket operates without the strict regulations of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing for markets on all sorts of surprising and taboo topics, such as whether the next pope will be gay or transgender. As one can imagine, these contrarian bets have sparked controversy among some Catholics.

But the fact remains that there's an 11% chance bettors believe the next pope will be Black, while the next pope being announced before May 9 has odds of 59%.

Now the world watches to see which lucky contender will be crowned the new pope. Stay tuned for updates on this rollercoaster ride of a story.

Enrichment Data:

Process and Timeline for the Election of Pope Francis' Successor

At a glance, the process for electing the next Pope following Pope Francis' death involves a series of steps:

1. Pre-Conclave Period:
2. Mourning and preparation period for the cardinals following the death of Pope Francis.
3. The College of Cardinals assembles in Rome between 15-20 days post-pontiff's death.
4. A mass for guidance marks the start of the conclave process.
5. Conclave Setup:
6. Cardinals seal themselves within the Sistine Chapel after taking an oath of secrecy.
7. Voting Process:
8. Cardinals cast their votes through folded ballots.
9. Voting continues daily until a new pope is elected. A two-thirds majority is required for election.
10. Smoke Signals:
11. A white smoke signal indicates a new pope; a black smoke signal signifies the absence of a two-thirds majority.
12. Post-Election:
13. The elected pope is asked to accept the position; he then chooses a papal name and appears on the St. Peter's Basilica balcony to greet the faithful.

Prediction Wagering Exchange Polymarket's Involvement

Polymarket is a prediction wagering exchange that allows users to bet on various outcomes, including high-profile events like the election of a new Pope. Calmly spectate the exchange amidst the electoral process, but remember that the legitimacy of bets on religious events may vary depending on the platform and geographical area.

1. The prediction wagering exchange, Polymarket, anticipated the death of Pope Francis with their market launched in February, predicting there would be no new pope in 2025.
2. Currently, over $2.7 million is at stake in the Polymarket market, predicting who the next pope will be, with $1.006 million staked on "no new pope."
3. Among the front-runners for the next pope are Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle, both progressives with views similar to Pope Francis on issues such as supporting LGBTQ+ members and divorced Catholics.
4. The retired Cardinal Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin, leads the odds with an implied probability of 36%, while Luis Antonio Tagle is close behind at 26%.
5. Polymarket allows for markets on a variety of surprising and taboo topics, such as the possibility of a gay or transgender pope, leading to controversy among some Catholics.
6. A poll on Polymarket suggests an 11% chance that the next pope will be Black, while the next pope being announced before May 9 has odds of 59%.
7. Pope Francis' death sets off a series of rites that will culminate in the cardinals gathering in the Sistine Chapel to choose his successor, a process that usually takes 15 days or less.
8. The election of the new pope will follow a process that includes a mourning and preparation period for cardinals, mass for guidance, sealing themselves within the Sistine Chapel, daily voting until a new pope is elected, white smoke signal indicating a new pope, and the elected pope's acceptance, choosing a papal name, and greeting the faithful.
9. Following Pope Francis' death, celebrities, sports figures, and entertainment icons have flooded social media with condolences and tributes to the former pontiff.
10. Casinos and gambling establishments have also seen an increased interest in poker and sports betting due to the anticipation surrounding the election of the new pope.

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