Concerns expressed by an economist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas about the future of gambling and tourism in Las Vegas
In a recent report, Las Vegas is experiencing a decline in tourism, with visitor numbers dropping by 6.5% as of April 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. However, the outlook for the future remains optimistic, particularly with strong convention bookings for the second half of 2025 and most of 2026, which are nearly sold out [2].
Gaming revenue is also affected by the overall decline in visitor spending, but the robust convention and event schedule may help mitigate this effect. Stephen Miller and the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) released a mid-year report this week, discussing a year-to-date decline in visitation (6.5%) and gaming revenue (1.1%) on the Strip [3].
Economic factors play a significant role in the tourism industry in Las Vegas. The local economy, heavily influenced by tourism and entertainment, is somewhat tied to national trends but can be significantly affected by local factors such as major events and conventions [4]. The current offers and deals from resorts aim to entice more visitors, which could stabilize or improve gaming and tourism revenue in the coming years [5].
International tourism has softened in recent months, with international arrivals projected to fall 9% this year and foreign-visitor spending expected to drop by $8.5 billion [6]. Canadian tourism, however, contributed $6.2 billion in total economic output and supported over 43,000 jobs in southern Nevada last year [7]. Canadians made up the largest share of international visitors, at 28.3% [7]. However, analysts say many Canadian travelers are opting for alternative destinations due to concerns about affordability, currency values, and broader geopolitical tensions [8].
New attractions like the Hall of Excellence and F1-themed experiences may help broaden the city's appeal [9]. Additionally, the upcoming Hard Rock Hotel will add over 600 rooms to the Strip [10]. The bright line West's high-speed rail line, expected to open in 2028, will improve access from southern California [11].
The national economy faces a potential slowdown and uncertainty in the next six to 18 months over tariffs and the business climate, according to CBER [12]. The spending and tax bill signed into law by President Trump earlier this month altered the tax code for gaming losses, reducing the allowable deduction from 100% to 90% [13].
Despite these challenges, the CBER's most recent Tourism Index for Southern Nevada declined 2.1 percent month over month and 2.2 percent year over year [14]. The index measures the strength of the tourism economy based on factors such as hotel occupancy, gaming revenue, and air travel.
In May 2025, hotel occupancy for Las Vegas fell to 83%, down more than three points. Strip occupancy dropped 3.2 points to 85.3%, while downtown declined more sharply to 74.8%, a 4.2 point drop [1]. Revenue per available room declined 5.7%, and gaming revenue fell 4.5%, led by an 11.4% drop downtown and 3.9% on the Strip [1]. Air travel through Harry Reid International Airport in May 2025 saw a 3.9% year-over-year decline [8].
Overall, while Las Vegas faces challenges in the short term, future events, strong convention bookings, and new attractions suggest a potential recovery in tourism by the end of 2025 and into 2026.
In the current year, gaming revenue in Las Vegas's casinos-and-gambling industry may be affected by the decline in visitor spending due to the tourism slump, as suggested by the decrease in visitation and gaming revenue on the Strip [3]. Nevertheless, the robust convention schedule and new attractions may assist in mitigating these negative effects and potentially help revitalize casino-and-gambling revenue in Las Vegas by the end of 2025 and into 2026.
