Confidence Query:
France is on the brink of a political crisis as the vote of confidence for Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to take place in the National Assembly on Monday. The outcome of this vote could determine the fate of the government, with a simple majority sufficient to bring it down.
However, it is unlikely that Bayrou will win the vote, given the current political landscape. Coalition governments are uncommon in France, and the center-right camp of the government, with just 210 votes, is significantly outnumbered by the opposing parties, which hold 330 votes. These include the Socialists, Marine Le Pen's nationalists, Greens, Communists, and the left-wing party LFI.
If Bayrou fails to secure the necessary votes, it could lead to the government being toppled. This would deepen the political crisis in France, with it being unclear who could unite the different factions and prevent stagnation.
The draft budget presented by Bayrou aims to provide for a savings volume of 43.8 billion euros. However, the financial problems of France, the second-largest economy in the eurozone, could be a problem for European partners. The country's budget deficit of 5.8% and public debt of around 114% of GDP make it the eurozone country with the highest debt ratio after Greece and Italy. This could potentially affect trade and impose financial constraints in dealing with major crises like the Ukraine war.
President Macron, under pressure, will likely try to appoint a new Prime Minister as quickly as possible. The search for a new Prime Minister could be challenging due to the lack of a majority in the National Assembly for Macron's centrist faction, leftist forces, or Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists.
In the event of a government collapse, Macron could dissolve the lower house and call for new elections as a last resort. New elections would initially mean instability for France, which needs to get its debt under control and pass a budget for the next year.
The vote is not on specific austerity measures but on the choice between "chaos and responsibility". It is intended to forestall mass protests and potential chaos scheduled for next Wednesday. Regardless of the government, Macron would remain the key player and first point of contact in foreign policy, but he might be less visible on the international stage due to the domestic crisis.
The name of the new Prime Minister to be appointed after Bayrou's resignation on September 8, 2025, has not been announced yet. President Macron intends to announce the successor "in the coming days" following Bayrou’s resignation.
If no one takes the reins for an extended period, this could cause further loss of trust in the markets, potentially leading to more financial instability. The political future of France hangs in the balance as the vote of confidence looms.
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