Dutch Gambling Operators Worry About 25% Decline in Gross Gaming Revenue
The Dutch gambling industry is facing a challenging period, with operators reporting a shift in high-spending customers to offshore gambling sites. This transition is believed to be driven by the stricter controls implemented in 2025, which include deposit limits and advertising bans.
These regulations, introduced as part of broader regulatory tightening aimed at consumer protection and responsible gambling, have had complex effects on gambling revenue. The Dutch Gambling Authority (Kansspelautoriteit, or KSA) has warned that these measures, while designed to mitigate gambling addiction risk and financial harm, could potentially encourage players towards unregulated offshore sites [3].
The introduction of deposit limits restricts the amount players can fund their accounts, which could lower overall revenue for licensed operators. However, it also helps in reducing the risk of gambling addiction and financial harm [2][4]. On the other hand, advertising bans, aimed at reducing exposure to gambling promotions, especially to vulnerable groups, may decrease demand and participation, thereby affecting licensed operators' turnover. Yet, this also risks driving players to offshore gambling sites that are not subject to Dutch regulations or limits, as these sites often continue aggressive marketing and do not enforce deposit restrictions [3].
The KSA is vigilant about the risk of such player migration and continues to block payment providers and websites lacking licenses to combat offshore gambling penetration [1][3]. However, the increased tax on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) starting from January 1, 2025, is expected to result in a €200m ($231m) shortfall for the year 2025 [5].
The GGR for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 25% lower than the same period in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue for the second half of the year. This is attributed to the government's restrictions on the legal market, the increased tax on GGR, and the transition of spenders to offshore sites [6]. The tax intake from the gambling industry for the first half of 2025 is expected to be approximately 83% of 2024's level, and for the entire year of 2025, it is expected to be approximately 80% of 2024's level [7].
The deposit limits in the Netherlands for gambling activities prohibit individuals from depositing over €700 ($800) per month, or €300 ($346) if they are 25 years old or younger [8]. The gambling industry's trade body, the Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK), has expressed concerns that the GGR drop is due to the government's restrictions on the legal market [9].
This situation reflects a broader challenge in regulating online gambling markets: balancing consumer protection and revenue generation for domestic operators, while combating the offshore market's regulatory arbitrage effects. The KSA is set to release official figures this week regarding the discrepancy in the gambling industry [10]. Operators within the industry will face an additional 3.6% rise in the tax rate on GGR next year, increasing the level to 37.8% of GGR [11].
Sources:
[1] Betting and Gambling Act and the Betting and Gambling Tax Act
[2] Stricter controls on the Dutch gambling market
[3] KSA warns of potential unintended consequences of tax hikes and regulatory changes
[4] Impact of deposit limits on gambling addiction and financial harm
[5] €200m shortfall expected due to increased tax on GGR
[6] GGR projections for 2025
[7] Tax intake projections for 2025
[8] Deposit limits in the Netherlands
[9] VNLOK's view on GGR drop
[10] Official figures on the discrepancy in the gambling industry
[11] Additional tax rate increase for operators
The Dutch Gambling Authority (KSA) is concerned that stricter regulations, including deposit limits and advertising bans, could potentially drive players towards unregulated offshore casino-and-gambling sites, which do not enforce deposit restrictions and may continue aggressive marketing [3]. The increased tax on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) starting from January 1, 2025, is expected to result in a financial shortfall for the Dutch gambling industry, with the GGR projected to be 25% lower than the same period in 2024 [6].
