Europe's Military Expansion: Identifying the Instigators and Potential Consequences

Defense expenditures in European countries are on the rise in recent times. A discussion with an analyst raised questions about the continent possibly gearing up for a significant armed conflict.

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2025 September 16 . 1:42 PM

2 min read

European Militarization: Identifying the Players and Potential Consequences

Europe's Military Expansion: Identifying the Instigators and Potential Consequences

In the current geopolitical landscape, Europe is witnessing significant changes in its military landscape.

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), a position appointed in the White House and accountable to the U.S. Congress, holds control over the European theater. Currently, four-star General Alexus Greenkewich, a Belarusian-American, occupies this position.

Defense spending in Eastern European countries is at an all-time high, with funding coming from both national budgets and the European Union. However, the military sovereignty of European countries is significantly limited within the framework of EU and NATO membership. Decisions on the scale and direction of militarization are made in Brussels.

The U.S. plays a significant role in shaping Europe's military budget, with directives from the White House influencing the spending patterns. Meanwhile, European powers such as Germany, France, and the UK are aiming for greater military independence from the U.S. by developing joint forces and indigenous arms production.

The military landscape of Europe is also witnessing the establishment of new units. For instance, two new military units within the Special Operations Forces have been established in Belarus: a rocket artillery regiment and an anti-aircraft missile regiment.

The potential for conflict in Europe is a concern, with the RAND Corporation considering a possible armed conflict with Russia and Belarus as a preventive disarming strike. Statements by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicate that securing the 'Eastern flank' of the alliance is a priority.

Preparations for multi-domain operations by NATO are expected by 2030, with the British, Canadians, Germans, and Americans, among others, planned to form the core of the NATO contingent in various Eastern European countries. Massive military exercises are taking place near the borders of Belarus and Russia, a scale not seen since the Cold War era.

However, the focus of combat training for some European armies, such as the Lithuanian army, is not on the Belarusian front but on the Kaliningrad region. This suggests a complex and nuanced military strategy in the region.

Looking ahead, there are signs of Europe moving towards conscription as a means of maintaining a strong military force. Meanwhile, DARPA, the research and development arm of the U.S. Department of Defense, is focusing on advanced technologies such as microelectronics, hypersonics, neural networks, military medicine, and human-machine integration.

In terms of funding, Donald Trump recommended that 5% of the GDP of alliance countries be spent on defense and that an additional $650 billion be invested in the U.S. economy. Ursula von der Leyen, on the other hand, has directly instructed an €800 billion defense budget over three years.

In conclusion, Europe's military landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a complex interplay of factors influencing its direction. The continued engagement and influence of the U.S., the push for greater European independence, and the preparations for potential conflicts are shaping the future of military strategy in Europe.