Examining history and predicting the future through an engaging conversation with Aziz Rafiee
The Bonn Conference, chaired by the Afghan government, is set to take place this winter, with pressing issues at the forefront. The conference aims to discuss the transition, international commitment for Afghanistan beyond 2014, peace, reconciliation, and reintegration programs, and security.
The neighboring countries, including Pakistan, India, and Iran, play a significant role in the development of Afghanistan. These nations are concerned about their future, positions, access to resources, economic gains and losses, political and geographical security. A regional solution, along with economic partnership, might be the key to resolving the irresolvable conflict in Afghanistan.
The international community has promised to empower the Afghans, but this pledge remains largely unfulfilled. In January 2010, a new strategy was developed to support and protect the Afghan people and intensify the training of Afghan security forces. However, concerns persist about the capacity of the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police to maintain peace and security after the withdrawal of international forces in 2014.
The insurgency in Afghanistan continues to adapt quickly to changes in military strategies. The Taliban, under strong influence of regional intelligence, may not be permitted to act independently. It remains uncertain if they will join the Bonn Conference.
Over the past four years, the developments in Afghanistan have led to one of the largest humanitarian crises globally. Marked by widespread poverty, human rights abuses, severe restrictions on women and girls, and a socio-economic collapse worsened by conflict and natural disasters, criticism of failings and uncoordinated strategies is confirmed by the inadequate international response. Underfunded humanitarian aid and inconsistent asylum policies, exemplified by the rapidly dropping protection rates for Afghan asylum seekers in Germany and stalled evacuation processes for vulnerable Afghans stuck in Pakistan and neighboring countries, highlight the need for a more comprehensive approach.
Despite these challenges, there have been significant achievements in Afghanistan over the past 10 years. Increased people's awareness and participation, infrastructure development, economic growth, and revival of the agriculture sector are just a few examples. The number of schools, clinics, hospitals, radio channels, TV channels, newspapers, magazines, and other publications in Afghanistan has increased dramatically. By 2014, more than 6,000 post-graduate students are expected to return to Afghanistan from abroad.
However, uncertainty remains about how the Afghans and civil society will be represented in the Bonn Conference. It is not clear whether the Afghan government is willing to include civil society in the development of the country or whether their voice will be heard at the conference.
To empower Afghanistan to sustain itself from 2014 as a secure state with a future perspective, it is necessary to build up the capacity of the Afghans, establish an organic partnership with the international community and regional actors, improve coordination and harmonization with development and democratic institution building, and set up a functioning judiciary.
The interview for this article was taken by Caroline Bertram. The second Bonn Conference is expected to provide insights into the future of Afghanistan and the role of the international community in its development.
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