Expanding Maize Export Capabilities for Ukraine in 2025
The European Union has been heavily reliant on Ukrainian corn imports, with the first five months of the current year accounting for around 73% of the total corn imports to the EU. This trend continued from the previous year, as two-thirds of EU corn imports in 2024 were sourced from Ukraine, amounting to a value of 2.94 billion euros.
However, there has been a recent decrease in deliveries from Ukraine to the EU due to uncertainty over the expiration of temporary autonomous trade measures (ATM). This led to a decline in imports in April and May of the current year, with volumes of around 639,000 tons and 541,000 tons, respectively, which is less than half of the comparable months of the previous year.
The good news is that the 2025 corn harvest in Ukraine is expected to be significantly larger than the previous year, with an estimated yield of 34.7 million tons. This would represent an increase of about 29% compared to the 2024 harvest.
Experts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture anticipate Ukrainian corn exports to reach 28.5 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, which begins on October 1. If the good harvest occurs, Ukrainian corn exports are expected to significantly recover, making the EU, the main destination for these exports, a key player in the market once again.
The expansion of the cultivation area in Ukraine is around 10%, which should further boost the country's corn production. However, it's important to note that corn crops in southern Ukraine are currently in an unusually poor condition due to dry conditions.
Looking ahead, the main target markets for Ukrainian grain exports in 2025 are likely to be China, Egypt, and countries in the European Union. The import of corn from Ukraine, like that of other agricultural products, has been subject to a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) since early June of the current year. The tariff-rate quota for the remainder of the year has not been specified in the article.
The value of corn imports from Ukraine to the EU in the first five months of the current year was around 1.3 billion euros, which is approximately 45% of the total value of corn imports to the EU during the same period. With the larger harvest expected for 2025, this value is expected to increase, strengthening the economic ties between Ukraine and the EU.
However, there is a cautionary note from U.S. analysts who have issued a warning about the potential need to adjust the corn harvest estimate downwards if dry conditions persist. This serves as a reminder that while the outlook for Ukrainian corn production and exports is generally positive, weather conditions can still have a significant impact on the final yield.
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