Expanding Market for Zero-Emission Trucks to Reach an Estimated USD 101.86 Billion by 2034
The demand for zero-emission trucks (ZETs) is surging, driven by tightening government regulations, falling battery costs, and expanding charging infrastructure.
In the first half of 2024, Nikola Corporation delivered 112 hydrogen fuel-cell trucks and operates 14 refueling stations, despite facing bankruptcy in early 2025. This highlights the rollout risks associated with the transition to ZETs.
Heavy-duty trucks, essential for long-haul freight and cross-border logistics, remain the most challenging segment to electrify. However, China has made significant strides in this area, with companies like Windrose Technology expanding into the US market to target long-haul Class 8 EVs.
Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are gaining ground in the heavy-duty segment, offering rapid refueling and lower weight penalties, making them ideal for long-distance and high-payload operations. While FCEV adoption is currently under 1% of total ZETs globally, pilot programs in Germany, California, and South Korea indicate growing momentum.
In Europe and North America, companies like Volvo, Nikola, and Daimler are piloting battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks with ranges exceeding 300 miles. By vehicle type, light-duty trucks dominate the current ZET landscape, particularly in urban delivery routes with shorter distances and frequent stops. Medium-duty trucks are the fastest-growing segment, increasingly being used in regional logistics, utility services, and municipal operations.
Government Policies and Regulations
Stricter emission standards such as the US EPA’s Clean Trucks Plan and California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulations mandate increased sales and use of ZETs starting in 2025, pushing fleets to transition away from diesel. Similarly, many regions impose zero-emission zones that restrict access for internal combustion trucks, encouraging ZET adoption.
Subsidies and Incentives
Countries like China provide substantial direct subsidies up to USD 13,300 per electric truck, and favorable tax incentives, making electric trucks more financially attractive. These lower upfront cost barriers accelerate purchase decisions.
Decreasing Battery and Operational Costs
Battery prices continue to fall, narrowing the total cost of ownership gap between electric and diesel trucks. Operational savings from cheaper electricity (especially where plentiful renewable energy exists) and lower maintenance further boost economic viability.
Infrastructure Development
Rapid rollout of electric charging stations and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, especially in industrial corridors and for high-mileage freight transport, is critical to enabling truck fleet electrification at scale.
Corporate and Market Momentum
Increased investments from OEMs, startups, and automakers are scaling manufacturing capacity and offering innovative financing options. For example, Fortescue-Liebherr has agreed to a $2.8 billion battery-electric fleet deal to convert two-thirds of mining vehicles, with validation beginning in 2025 across Australia.
However, infrastructure gaps, such as insufficient grid capacity, charging station availability, and hydrogen refueling, remain a challenge in non-urban corridors. Policy uncertainty, such as New York's proposed delay on ACT rule (postponed to 2027), may also slow the momentum of ZET adoption.
Despite these challenges, the surge in demand for ZETs is undeniable, with companies and governments worldwide investing in this cleaner, more sustainable future.
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