Title: Controversy Surrounding Changes to Poverty Statistics in Germany and the US
Federal Statistical Office in Germany faces lax treatment in two recent incidents
In the realm of statistical agencies, maintaining integrity, methodological competence, and political independence is paramount. However, this balance can often be tested, especially when statistical indicators carry political weight. This article explores two recent cases in Germany and the US, where changes to poverty statistics have sparked debates and accusations.
The Case in Germany
Mikrozensus (MZ) is one of the most significant data sources for poverty and social reporting in Germany. The EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) was gradually introduced as a new standard to provide comparable indicators across Europe. In Germany, the MZ-SILC combined elements of the Mikrozensus and the EU-SILC.
The transition to the MZ-SILC method was associated with statistical changes and methodological breaks. Critics feared that this would fracture time series and compromise the comparability of poverty risk rates.
Thirty leading researchers, economists, and statistics experts from universities, research institutions, and statistical offices have publicly and academically advocated for maintaining the existing poverty measurement method based on Mikrozensus-Kern (MZ-Kern) instead of transitioning to the MZ-SILC method in 2023. However, it's unclear which country these researchers are referring to, as the Mikrozensus circumstances and reforms vary somewhat between countries like Germany and Austria.
These efforts were made predominantly in the following forums:
- Academic Conferences and Symposiums: Discussions about the issues were held at conferences such as the Poverty Conference, Statistics Days, and Social Policy Forums.
- Open Letters and Statements: Collective letters were written to policymakers, ministries, and the Federal Statistical Office to raise awareness about the issue.
- Scientific Publications: Articles in academic journals and working papers, where the methodological issues were detailed.
- Working Groups: Participation in committees of the German Demography Society, the Federal Statistical Office, and social organizations.
- Media Appearances: Interviews and guest articles in national newspapers and specialist magazines to stimulate public debate.
Despite not preventing the method change altogether, these efforts ensured that the discussion about comparability and transition paths was taken seriously. The Federal Statistical Office responded by publishing both old and new poverty risk rates during the transition phase to keep the data series comparable.
The Case in the US
In the US, the administration's approach towards the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) serves as an example of how unfounded assumptions and accusations of manipulation can erode essential trust. Trump accused the BLS of "fraud" because the employment figures were revised several times, and he fired the head of the BLS, Erika McEntarfer, due to his dissatisfaction with the latest employment data.
The opposition accused Trump of autocratic behavior in response to his actions towards the BLS. In a similar vein, media entrepreneur Gabor Steingart accused the Federal Statistical Office of making a mistake in calculating the GDP, but the office has regularly pointed out expected, larger revisions in its press releases.
In both cases, the integrity of statistical agencies was questioned, highlighting the importance of maintaining neutrality, methodological competence, and political independence in the production and dissemination of official statistics.
Further Reading
- Press releases and position papers from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
- Academic journals such as "Wirtschaftsdienst", "Sozialer Fortschritt", or "Zeitschrift für Soziologie"
- Websites of research consortia and social organizations (e.g., Paritätischer Gesamtverband)
- Archives of scientific conference contributions (e.g., Poverty Conference, DIW Berlin)
In conclusion, the researchers' criticisms were communicated through scientific, political, and public channels. Their goal was to preserve the integrity of poverty statistics and facilitate a smooth transition. Although the change to MZ-SILC was ultimately implemented, the researchers' efforts contributed to a more transparent and critical debate in academia and politics.
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