First downward revision of Romania's economic forecast following explanation of Q2 GDP statistics by the national statistical office
In a recent report consulted by Cursdeguvernare.ro, the economic outlook for several countries in Central and Eastern Europe shows a mixed picture.
The report highlights a robust growth rate for Poland and Croatia, with the Czech Republic and Slovenia also showing signs of stabilization. However, the forecast for Romania is more subdued.
According to the report, the current growth forecast for Romania stands at 1.3% of GDP for the whole of 2025. This is a slight improvement from the unadjusted series for H1 2025, which shows a growth rate of just 0.3%. The adjusted series for H1 2025, on the other hand, shows a growth rate of 1.4%.
Despite this modest growth, a timid recovery is predicted for Romania in 2026, with a forecast of 2.1% economic growth. This is still lower than the forecast for Poland, which is emerging as the best-performing economy in the region, with an advance of over 3% for the whole of 2025.
However, the report warns of significant discrepancies in the data on the evolution of the Romanian economy. These discrepancies make it difficult to accurately assess the downward revision at this time, according to the report. The search results do not provide information about the causes of these discrepancies.
The report by Erste bank's analysts predicts a decrease in Romania's growth forecast for 2025. This is in contrast to the forecast for Hungary, which is expected to stagnate in 2025 but has prospects of recovery in 2026.
Despite the challenges facing the Romanian economy, the report remains optimistic about its future, predicting a more robust recovery in 2026. It is important to note that these forecasts are subject to change as economic conditions evolve.
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