Geopolitical Stability in the South Caucasus Region?
In a historic move, the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace agreement in Washington, aiming for lasting peace and good neighborly relations. The agreement includes a US-brokered infrastructure component called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a strategic transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan and onward to Turkey, passing through Armenian territory.
The TRIPP corridor has been a contentious issue between the two nations for years. The 42-kilometer route, now part of this deal, grants the US exclusive special development rights on the Zangezur corridor for 99 years, with intentions to build rail, oil, gas, fiber optic, and possibly electricity infrastructure.
The peace agreement commits both Armenia and Azerbaijan to a permanent ceasefire, full diplomatic relations, and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, aiming for lasting regional peace. The corridor facilitates direct land transit between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, improving Azerbaijan-Turkey connectivity, which is a key benefit for Azerbaijan.
The agreement also calls for the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, which had unsuccessfully mediated for decades. This move is likely to displease Russia, which was a leading mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in 2020 and has troops stationed in Armenia, as well as planned US-Armenian maneuvers.
The TRIPP corridor is a significant US-backed regional economic and geopolitical initiative intended to reduce Iranian and Russian influence by creating an alternative transport route linking the Caspian region to Turkey and beyond. However, its security arrangements, sovereignty guarantees, and the US's long-term commitment to regional stability remain open questions.
The deal requires substantial social and political adjustments within Azerbaijan and Armenia, given previous hostilities and narratives. Russia's regional influence is diminished as the US asserts leadership through TRIPP; Moscow's muted response reflects strategic calculation to maintain some leverage, but the US has effectively inherited regional balancing challenges from Russia.
Iran views the peace deal cautiously, warning of foreign intervention near its borders risking regional destabilization. It has threatened to block the corridor citing security issues despite welcoming the broader peace. Iran is not pleased with a route controlled by the USA right on its doorstep.
Armenia gains the promise of peace and inter-state relations, but sovereignty concerns persist regarding the corridor under Armenian law but with heavy US control. The agreement demands a major political and societal shift, especially as Armenia cedes special corridor development rights to the US.
Turkey strengthens its alliance and economic ties with Azerbaijan via direct land transit, with TRIPP enhancing Turkey-Azerbaijan land connectivity that bypasses Iran and Russia, strategically benefiting Ankara.
The peace agreement and the TRIPP corridor signal a major geopolitical realignment with increased US influence, new regional connectivity, and potential shifts in the balance of power—challenging Russia and Iran's traditional dominance while offering prospects for economic development and lasting peace, contingent on complex diplomatic and domestic dynamics.
However, the agreement is controversially debated in Armenia, with concerns about Armenian security and regional stability arising from the concession of a transit connection through an Armenian area. Critics, such as Vartan Oskanian, former Foreign Minister of Armenia, have expressed concern about the agreement potentially threatening Armenian security and regional stability.
The latest agreement states that the planned route will be under the control of a consortium commissioned by the USA for a period of 99 years. This development has raised concerns among some Armenians, with Tigran Chshmalyan, chairman of the European Party of Armenia, regretting that the agreement was concluded under the auspices of Trump.
Aram Hamparian, a spokesman for the Armenian diaspora in the US, has criticized the agreement, claiming it rewards Azerbaijan's aggression and endangers Armenia's security and sovereignty. The resumption of direct relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, significant investments from the USA, and an end to the economic blockade by neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan could be benefits of the agreement for Armenia.
Meanwhile, Iran's President Massoud Peschkian will visit Armenia in the next two weeks, according to verelq.am, while Shahin Mustafayev, Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, will visit Iran shortly thereafter, according to Azerbaijani media. These visits could provide opportunities for both countries to address their concerns and work towards a more stable and peaceful region.
In conclusion, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement and the TRIPP corridor mark a significant turning point in the region, with complex geopolitical implications. The success of this agreement will depend on the ability of the involved parties to address the concerns of all stakeholders and work towards a lasting and peaceful solution.
