Hardening Balkan Sentiment Against EU Expansion?
In recent developments, the European Union (EU) has been making strides in its accession talks with several Western Balkan countries, while facing growing doubts and disillusionment from some of the region's citizens.
Yana Myachenkova, a researcher specialising in Balkan politics, has noted a shift in sentiment among people from NGOs and students, who were once ardent advocates for reforms to join the EU. Myachenkova expressed concern that these individuals are now losing faith that the EU is on their side.
One country that has seen significant economic progress as a result of EU membership is Hungary. A study by the Hungarian Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation revealed that real wages doubled and poverty halved in Hungary between 2004 and 2023, due in part to its EU membership. Hungary's GDP per capita rose from about 59% to 81% of the EU average by 2022.
However, not all Western Balkan countries share the same level of enthusiasm for EU membership. Support for EU membership is highest in Kosovo and lowest in Serbia, according to recent polls. Serbia stands out for its lack of belief that the EU is serious about enlargement, with fewer than half of Serbians now expecting their country to ever join the EU.
Albania, on the other hand, is making significant progress in its accession talks. The European Union and Albania began new talks on Albania's accession to the bloc today, with European Commissioner Marta Kos, responsible for enlargement, praising Albania for its pace in the accession talks. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama aims to complete technical work by 2027 for Albania's EU membership.
Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Bosnia show different levels of backing for EU membership. The European Commission (EC) is due to publish its annual enlargement package in October, which could update accession plans by laying out detailed roadmaps and benchmarks for each candidate country.
Meanwhile, Myachenkova described the current accession process as "technocratic and bureaucratic," echoing sentiments shared by many in the region who feel that the process is moving too slowly. Karoly Gruber, Hungary's official for enlargement at its Permanent Representation to the EU, noted that Serbia, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina were promised EU membership a decade ago but remain stuck in slow-moving negotiations.
The European Commission and Council consider these talks an important step forward in Albania's process of joining the EU. Denmark's Europe minister Marie Bjerre chaired the meeting for the European Council presidency.
However, the progress of Western Balkan countries towards EU membership is not without challenges. The study warned that global shocks and war in neighboring Ukraine could slow Hungary's convergence with the EU average. As the accession process continues, it remains to be seen how these challenges will be addressed and whether the doubts and disillusionment expressed by some will persist.
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