Increased demand drives JP Morgan to boost its Macau gaming revenue forecast once more
A 12% growth in Macau's commercial casino gaming revenues is expected in the September quarter, according to a forecast by analyst Ben Blaschke from Inside Asian Gaming [1]. This growth is set to continue in the latter half of 2025, with a projected 13% year-on-year increase [1].
The surge in Macau's gaming sector is primarily driven by several key economic and market factors. The resurgence in spending by affluent Chinese gamblers, favourable currency dynamics, positive market sentiment, strong operational performance by major casino operators, and ongoing momentum from earlier quarters have all contributed to this growth [2].
The Chinese yuan has appreciated by about 4% since April 2025, increasing the purchasing power of mainland visitors [2]. Simultaneously, a rise in available cash in Hong Kong, supported by strong demand for new stock offerings and a decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, has made it easier for gamblers to access Hong Kong dollars used in Macau casinos [2].
Gains in the stock markets of China, Hong Kong, and the US, along with increases in cryptocurrency values, have enhanced the financial mood among gamblers, fueling higher betting activity [2]. For example, Melco’s City of Dreams Macau achieved record mass market table game revenues and a 35% year-over-year increase in property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q2 2025 [4].
The first half of 2025 already saw a 4% growth in GGR with sustained monthly increases around 19% in June and July compared to 2024 [2][3]. This solid foundation has provided expectations of stronger results through Q3 and Q4.
Investment Bank JP Morgan has upgraded its Macau GGR forecast for the remainder of 2025, reflecting the positive trends observed in Macau's gaming sector [1]. The growth rate rises to 16% in Q4 of 2025 [1].
The positive trends in Macau's gaming sector could potentially influence the overall economic growth of the region. This is an improvement from the 4% growth rate projected for the first six months of 2025 [1]. It is worth noting that this forecast is for Macau's commercial casinos only.
The surge in Macau's gaming sector may indicate a potential recovery in the region's economy, as the positive consumer sentiment towards the stock markets seems to have a positive impact on Macau's economy [2].
Sources:
- Inside Asian Gaming
- Ben Blaschke, Inside Asian Gaming
- Bloomberg
- Melco Resorts & Entertainment
