Increased maize production for export projected in Ukraine by 2025
The European Union (EU) has seen a decrease in corn deliveries from Ukraine due to uncertainty about the expiration of temporary autonomous trade measures, but experts from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predict a recovery in Ukrainian corn exports, reaching 28.5 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year.
In 2024, the EU imported around 4.79 million tons of corn from Ukraine, making up two-thirds of its total corn imports with a value of 2.94 billion euros. However, the current corn imports from Ukraine are significantly lower compared to the same months in the previous year due to the implementation of a tariff-rate quota for corn imports from Ukraine starting from June of the current year.
The projected increase in corn exports is based on the expected good harvest, with a 10% expansion in cultivation area and higher yields per hectare. Analysts from the USDA have increased the estimate for Ukraine's 2025 corn harvest from 30.5 million tons to 32 million tons. The 2025/26 marketing year for Ukrainian corn exports begins on October 1.
Ukraine's corn crops in southern regions are currently in a poor condition due to dry weather conditions, but the US analysts have issued a warning that the corn harvest estimate may need to be adjusted downward if these conditions persist. Despite this, the increased corn production and exports in Ukraine have implications for global corn markets.
The EU remains the main destination for Ukrainian corn exports, and Ukrainian corn exports are projected to exceed the previous year's level by almost 30%. Experts expect Ukrainian corn exports to reach a significant amount in the coming years, providing a boost to global corn markets.
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