India's expanding foreign policy alliances and growing influence on the global stage
In the post-Cold War era, India finds itself navigating a complex global landscape, particularly in the realm of defence and foreign policy. The globalised world, characterised by intricate supply chains that crisscross land and sea boundaries, presents both opportunities and challenges for India.
India has been actively engaging with countries in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond, seeking to balance the U.S.-China rivalry and uphold a rules-based international order. Between 2020 and 2024, special economic and strategic partnerships were activated with Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, as well as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. These partnerships were formed within cooperative security and environmental frameworks, reflecting India's broader efforts to assert its role in the region.
However, India's quest for a multipolar world order has been a long-standing one, but historically, it has faced significant challenges, especially during the Cold War and its aftermath. The main challenge lies in the fact that the willingness and capacity of other middle powers to either counterbalance or support India may depend on their interests, which may not always align with India's.
One of the key challenges India faces is its territorial dispute with China, and Beijing's strategic encirclement of the nation. The U.S., with its substantial economic and military power, has been a significant player in the region. However, an unpredictable American presidency and a focus on American industrial capacity under the current administration may lead India to seek other mutually beneficial alliances.
The Modi administration is also wary of the U.S. seemingly re-hyphenating India and Pakistan, a move that could potentially undermine India's strategic interests. India's own reserves of rare earth minerals, the third-largest in the world, remain largely untapped. However, the U.S. administration's focus on building American industrial capacity may narrow the foundation of the India-U.S. partnership.
India is likely to revert to its Cold War strategy of hedging its bets in the economic realm by strengthening ties with other middle powers to shield itself from the turbulence of a volatile global order. The least likely scenario would occur if actions with long-term consequences take place, such as a U.S.-China trade deal that harms India's economy or statements from Washington that seem to signal a retreat from Asia or a turn inward.
In a world with a disengaged America, a weaker Russia, and a stronger China, India faces serious challenges in preserving its strategic autonomy, securing its borders, and sustaining its ascent. Without a sustained American initiative and resolve, the Quad risks becoming merely a diplomatic formality, returning the Indo-Pacific region to an arena of unmediated rivalry. It is in these challenging times that India must navigate its path forward, balancing its relationships with global powers and maintaining its strategic interests.
