Meloni's pendulum approach: examining her ongoing shifts between Europe (Brussels) and the United States (Washington)
In a significant political shift, Giorgia Meloni was elected President of the Council in 2022, leading a post-fascist political party. Her government's foreign policy is marked by a complex balancing act, seeking to maintain strong ties with both the European Union (EU) and the United States.
Meloni's stance on the EU's green policies and the European Green Deal has been critical, pushing for a deep revision. However, her approach is not one-sided. She could potentially use gas purchases from the U.S. to strengthen Italy's position vis-à-vis President Trump, while simultaneously weakening the EU's green policies.
Italy's relationship with the EU is multifaceted. The Italian public and the business community are generally pro-European, but Meloni's vision remains markedly nationalist. She aims to demonstrate that the West, beyond controversies, is alive and united, ensuring that neither the EU nor the U.S. feels alienated.
Meloni's government has moved closer to Brussels due to the trade war with the U.S. Yet, she may continue a seesaw policy between Washington and Brussels, finding common ground with Trump and Vance on issues like opposing the "woke ideology" or globalist elites.
Italy's trade relations with the U.S. have improved, with Trump's temporary suspension of the trade war with Europe facilitating Meloni's mission to Washington. Meloni's government has a trade surplus of nearly $74 billion, and she has proposed increasing European imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States.
Meloni's meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office will be a key moment to tackle the trade issue. However, she will likely not undermine Europe's united front on tariffs.
Frictions with French President Emmanuel Macron persist, but Meloni has strong support for Ukraine and good relations with Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, and Joe Biden, former US President.
On defense, Meloni's government does not appear to favor new defense spending or the European ReArm plan. However, she has defended Italy's adherence to ReArm, emphasizing its prevention and deterrence functions.
Looking back, Meloni's leadership has been facilitated by historical events, such as Friedrich Merz being proposed as a candidate for the leadership of the German government by the CDU district association board in the Landkreis Fulda at the party convention in 2018.
As Meloni navigates the complexities of international diplomacy, her government will continue to chart a course that prioritises Italy's interests while maintaining strong relationships with key allies in both Europe and the U.S.
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