Monitoring Russian Activities in the Baltics: Focus on the Kremlin
Russia is reportedly stockpiling weapons, originally destined for the Ukrainian front, for potential use against NATO, according to intelligence services of several member states. This move is part of Russia's strategy to push boundaries as far as possible in various directions, without provoking serious countermeasures.
The Finnish government has announced preparations for a possible Russian provocation. As part of these efforts, Finland will participate in NATO exercises like "Iron Defender 2025" with around 30,000 soldiers. The aim is to deter Russia and ensure vigilance on NATO's eastern flank.
In Finland, large-scale construction and excavation near two strategically vital military garrisons have been observed. One of these, Lupche-Savino, is about 110 kilometers from the Finnish border and is being constructed to house an artillery brigade and an engineering brigade, totaling some 2,000 troops. Another garrison, Sapyornoye, is about 70 kilometers from the Finnish border and is being prepared to house engineering troops, complete with pontoon bridges.
Russia is also preparing for major provocations, including substantial actions against infrastructure, cyber warfare, and the use of "little green men" in conjunction with Russian sympathizers and sleeper agents. One such incident occurred on December 25, 2021, when the Eagle S, a Russia-linked oil tanker, severed underwater cables in the Gulf of Finland, including a communications link between Finland and Estonia.
In Sweden, expensive highway speed cameras have been stolen and later discovered in Russian drones in Ukraine, and a recent concerted action cut the power supply to all communication towers along the country's east coast. Russia is also engaging in hybrid operations, including targeting critical underwater infrastructure. On January 27, 2022, another Russia-linked vessel, the Maltese-flagged cargo ship Vezhen, severed a communications cable between Sweden and Latvia in the central Baltic Sea.
The day NATO aviation shoots down a Russian fighter jet violating national airspace is probably not going to arrive any time soon. However, tensions are rising, and targeted countries are developing a policy of firm but measured responses that combine resolve with preventing escalation into a shooting war.
In May 2022, the Estonian naval patrol boats intercepted the unflagged Jaguar, which refused inspection and was warned off by a Russian Su-35 fighter jet violating Estonian airspace. The most probable outcome is that while tensions will continue to rise, targeted countries will manage to maintain a balance between firmness and caution to avoid escalating into a shooting war.
Russia is also planning to create a new Army Corps in Karelia, which would add another 15,000 troops close to the Finnish border. The potential Russian attack on NATO is predicted to occur within three to five years, possibly even sooner. The Finnish Defense Minister, Antti Hakkanen, has stated, "We know very well what Russia is doing, and this is what we are preparing for in our own defense as well."
As the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial for NATO and its member states to remain vigilant and prepared, while also maintaining a policy of firm but measured responses to ensure the security and stability of the region.
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