Nuclear Energy's Role in Our Energy Future - A Looming Decline or Irreplaceable Power Source?
Nuclear power, a controversial yet significant source of energy, continues to shape the global energy landscape. According to the Nuclear Energy Institute, nuclear power generates around $50 billion each year from electricity sales and provides around 100,000 jobs in the U.S. alone.
Despite the concerns, the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2014 projects a 60% leap in global installed nuclear capacity by 2040. Almost half of this growth is expected to come from China, which is currently dominating the nuclear construction scene, with 24 reactors under construction and provisions to approve and build six to eight new plants each year.
The costs of nuclear construction have bucked the trend of falling costs with other energy sources, instead demonstrating a "negative learning curve" over time. This is a concern that has been echoed by the history of nuclear plant construction costs, which varies dramatically by country, as argued by Ted Nordhaus of The Breakthrough Institute. However, South Korea has demonstrated a fairly consistent drop in costs over time, with all its plants built and owned by a single utility.
The intermittency of solar and wind power can be addressed by adding large amounts of electricity storage to the grid, according to nuclear proponents. This argument gains traction as the IEA projects almost 200 reactor retirements by 2040, making the 2030 to 2050 period a crucial time for nuclear, with many existing plants in the U.S. and elsewhere due to retire.
France leads the way in nuclear power, with more than 75% of its electricity coming from nuclear reactors. Other European countries, such as some unnamed ones, get 40 and 50% from nuclear reactors. In contrast, the U.S., Germany, and Russia have a lower proportion, accounting for around 20%.
The debate over the use of thorium as a fuel source is ongoing. While some experts warn that thorium could increase proliferation risks, others claim that it represents the only real hope of keeping the planet's temperature in check in the fight against climate change. The U.K. government report in 2013 called the benefits of thorium as a fuel source "overstated".
Not everyone is convinced of the benefits of nuclear power. Some experts argue that it is risky, unnecessary, and far too expensive to make a dent in reducing carbon emissions. These concerns, coupled with fear of a massive meltdown and concerns over nuclear weapons proliferation and waste disposal, continue to extend the shadow of risk stretching out behind nuclear power.
Vietnam and the Czech Republic are among the countries planning significant new nuclear power capacity. Vietnam plans to add about 4,800 MW of clean energy with the Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 nuclear power plants expected to come online by 2031. The Czech Republic also plans to expand nuclear power through small modular reactors and a new large reactor block at Dukovany, aiming to replace coal power by the mid-2030s.
With the right policies and institutions, nuclear plants can be built quickly, safely, and cheaply, as argued by Nordhaus. However, the future of nuclear power remains a contentious issue, with its role in the global energy mix yet to be fully determined.
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