Polish politics experiences upheaval following Nawrocki's win
Poland has a new president in office, with Karol Nawrocki taking the reins from his predecessor, Andrzej Duda. The election results have been widely accepted by coalition party leaders and EU leaders alike, marking a significant shift in Poland's political landscape.
Karol Nawrocki, a Polish historian and politician, served as the director of the Museum of the Second World War in Gdańsk from 2017 to 2021 and then headed the Institute of National Remembrance from 2021 to 2025 before becoming president in 2025. His political career, coupled with his background in history, promises a unique perspective on foreign and security policy.
Nawrocki is known for his strong anti-Putin instincts and unwavering support for Kyiv in its war for survival. However, his stance on Ukraine is somewhat complex. While he supports the country, he opposes immediate NATO membership for Ukraine until historical grievances are addressed and considers some social benefits for Ukrainian refugees as disadvantageous to Poles. He has also signaled a more nuanced approach on Ukraine, focusing on history and accountability, which he calls his "demarcation (red) lines."
The new president's stance on the EU is somewhat nuanced as well. Despite being portrayed as a "euroskeptic," the term "soft-euroskeptic" is more accurate. Nawrocki supports the EU as a union, but not as a superstate, and has never advocated for leaving the EU. However, his opposition to expanding EU defense competencies if they conflict with those of NATO and his pro-nuclear energy stance may complicate Poland's ties with its foreign partners, particularly Brussels and Berlin.
Nawrocki's presidency is likely to bring about a change in domestic policies as well. He has signaled that he will approach issues in ways neither Brussels nor Berlin wishes, potentially increasing friction with Germany and the European Commission on issues such as asylum and migration. He is also likely to press Mr. Tusk to be stricter on these issues.
On the foreign policy front, Nawrocki campaigned as a committed conservative, a man of deep Catholic faith, a Polish patriot, a vigorous defender of Polish interests, strongly anti-Kremlin, pro-NATO, and very pro-American. However, his approach to China remains somewhat unclear, suggesting a certain continuity in his predecessor's pragmatic approach.
The question remains whether the Tusk government will survive in its current form until the next elections scheduled for fall 2027. The strong tension in the cohabitation arrangement between the two rival political formations may grow into confrontation, potentially leading to a reshuffle, collapse, or early elections.
As Nawrocki embarks on his five-year term, he starts out in a strong political position. However, his policies and actions are likely to face challenges, particularly from coalition officials, politicians aligned with the government, and commentators who strongly criticize his stance on various issues. It remains to be seen how Nawrocki will navigate these challenges and shape Poland's future.
