Politician's Assertion: "A unique German course is unsustainable for us" - Political Expert Advocates Against German Exceptionalism: "We must not tolerate a unique German approach"
In the ongoing crisis between Ukraine and Russia, a significant debate has emerged regarding Germany's potential involvement and the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine.
Claudia Major, head of the department for security and defense policy at the independent US think tank German Marshall Fund, has weighed in on the matter. Major views the debate as a "knee-jerck reaction," but she also sees it as an opportunity to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed Germany’s readiness to contribute notably, especially by purchasing US Patriot systems for Ukraine, showing Germany’s commitment alongside the US initiatives. However, Major warns against the idea that Germany could stay out of the situation, stating that a German special way is not an option if Merz is serious about his leadership role in Europe.
The Coalition of the Willing, consisting of Europeans, will meet on Thursday to discuss providing security guarantees to Ukraine. The responsibility for these guarantees in the current discussions appears to be primarily sought from European partners, with the United States signaling limited direct involvement. The US Pentagon reportedly wants only a minor role, but Washington has shown some willingness to participate in post-war guarantees including intelligence sharing and air defense under European command.
Major prefers discussions to focus on ending the war in Ukraine. She questions how Europe can credibly convey to the Ukrainians that they will punish violations of the ceasefire and guarantee their security if there has been no such promise from the American side yet. Major also emphasizes that deploying European troops to secure a ceasefire would require Putin to accept a ceasefire.
The debate on sending German troops to Ukraine is seen by Major as a diversion. She notes that there are no signs of willingness to negotiate from the parties involved in the conflict, and she criticizes Europe for talking about so-called security guarantees, but these guarantees are merely security support, not the type of guarantees found in NATO.
As the two-week ultimatum for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, set by former US President Donald Trump, expired on Tuesday, the discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine continue. Major noted that the USA and Europe are shifting responsibility back and forth regarding securing a ceasefire in Ukraine.
A representative survey by the polling institute Civey on behalf of "web.de" found that 51 percent of Germans currently oppose German participation in a peace mission in Ukraine, 36 percent are in favor, and 13 percent are undecided. The German government's communication since the appearance of the Federal Chancellor in Washington on the topic has been poor, according to Major, who stated that if the political leadership stands behind decisions, the population will support them.
Major also noted that Germany's interest lies in preventing a further Russian attack after a ceasefire. She emphasized that Putin is not ready to accept a ceasefire or change his goals regarding Ukraine and Europe, according to Major. As of the article's publication, Trump has not commented on the expiration of the ultimatum.
The meeting, expected to be attended by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Friedrich Merz, will be a significant step in determining Europe's role in the Ukraine crisis and the potential for security guarantees to be provided to Ukraine.
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