"Power Struggles at the Summit of Politics' Elite Circle"
In the digital age, online popularity is a potent tool in the political arena, often signalling potential rather than actual strength. However, it is crucial to remember that managing online engagement, countering opponents, and shaping the narrative requires substantial investment in communication infrastructure and personnel.
One individual who has capitalised on this digital presence is Joakim Simiyu, who has been a regular feature on various podcasts and social platforms. Yet, as we look ahead to the 2027 elections, it is essential to remember that online buzz is merely a starting point; on-the-ground action wins elections.
Mwai Kibaki, an underdog in his time, ascended to the presidency by building a strong network and strategy. His success story underscores the importance of forming strategic alliances with political luminaries from diverse regions and communities.
On the other hand, Lawrence Oyugi, a lesser-known candidate compared to Simiyu, has faced defeat, most notably in the Bunge la Mwananchi Jeevanjee elections, where he bested Simiyu. The name of his victorious opponent was James Mwangi.
Kenya's political history is rife with examples of favourites losing, such as Kalonzo Musyoka, Kenneth Matiba, and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. These instances serve as a reminder that current popularity, especially online, can be a temporary illusion.
The "curse of the favourite" versus the "blessing of the underdog" is a phenomenon relevant to politics. The underdog, with less expectation and more to prove, often resonates more with the electorate.
However, to transform online popularity into a tangible political force, significant investment in communication infrastructure and personnel is necessary. A candidate must be seen, heard, and felt on the ground, connecting with people in their communities. Real-time groundwork demands consistent effort, and it is the real work that wins elections.
The "tyranny of numbers" theory also plays a significant role in elections. A key first step is conducting a SWOT analysis, focusing on the necessity of forming alliances to counter the numerical advantage of opponents.
Moi's 1992 victory is another example of the importance of on-the-ground action. His victory was believed to be a result of last-minute maneuvers to fragment the opposition.
In conclusion, while online popularity can provide a strong foundation, it is the groundwork that ultimately determines the outcome of elections. As we look towards 2027, the focus should be on building strategic alliances, investing in communication infrastructure, and engaging with the electorate on the ground to ensure a successful campaign.
