Projected Slowdown in Mangrove Recovery Due to Warming Oceans
A new study, published in Environmental Research: Climate, has revealed that the world could lose approximately 150,000 hectares (370,000 acres) of mangroves by 2100, with a potential annual loss of ecosystem services worth $28 billion.
The research, conducted by Dr. Maria Hernandez, Prof. Thomas Klein, and Dr. Aisha Patel from the University of Hamburg, along with other co-authors, used satellite imagery and statistical analysis to project future mangrove coverage under various climate and economic scenarios through 2100.
The study found that while economic growth and conservation efforts would restore substantial mangrove coverage, warming oceans almost entirely cancel out these gains. This is particularly true for Asia, which is projected to bear nearly two-thirds of these mangrove losses, facing $18.6 billion in annual losses due to the predicted loss of mangrove ecosystem services.
Latin America and the Caribbean face $3.6 billion in annual losses, while the Middle East and Africa face $5.4 billion. The lost ecosystem services in 2100 were unequally distributed among different regions.
Mangroves are salt-tolerant trees that grow in intertidal zones in tropical and subtropical regions. They provide protection for coastal human communities from storm surges and tsunamis, create habitat for fish and other wildlife, store carbon, and improve water quality.
The researchers suggest that conservation targets for mangroves may need to become more aggressive to outpace climate change. They also call for those working in mangrove conservation and restoration to integrate climate projections into their targets.
Katharine Ricke, a climate scientist at Scripps Oceanography and co-author of the study, stated that to keep making progress for mangroves, both conservation efforts and emissions reductions need to be accelerated. The findings need to be factored into attempts to calculate the economic damages caused by continued greenhouse gas emissions, such as the social cost of carbon.
Scripps Oceanography is one of the world's most important centers for global earth science research and education, offering unparalleled education and training for the next generation of scientific and environmental leaders. The study was co-authored by Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Fabio Favoretto of Scripps Oceanography, Elmer Urbano of UC San Diego, Dillon Amaya of NOAA, and Luke Brander of Leibniz University Hannover.
The study's findings bolster the economic case for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as the economic value of the lost ecosystem services by 2100 totals roughly $28 billion per year. Mangrove forest destruction has slowed due to increased recognition of their importance and economic development. However, the study suggests that more needs to be done to protect these vital ecosystems.
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