Research Findings: No Significant Increase in Global Sea Levels Observed
A new study titled "A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes" has shaken up the scientific community and potentially challenged frequent media reports of rapid sea level rise. The study, led by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel Voortman and independent researcher Rob de Vos, is the first global study based on real-world data instead of models.
The study, conducted without external funding, investigated the materialization of rising sea levels as projected by scientists. Contrary to expectations, the study found no clear sea level rise that can be definitively attributed to climate change. Instead, the findings suggest that local, non-climatic factors may be playing a significant role in sea level changes.
The study analysed over 200 tide gauge stations globally and found that in 95% of the locations deemed suitable for study, there was no statistically significant acceleration of sea level rise. In the remaining 5% of cases, the study suggests that local, non-climatic phenomena may be causing the accelerated sea level rise observed.
The average sea level rise in 2020 was approximately 1.5 mm per year, equivalent to about 6 inches per century. This average sea level rise is significantly lower than the rate frequently quoted in the media from climate scientists, which ranges from 3 to 4 mm per year.
In 2023, Voortman published a study showing sea levels around the Dutch coast were not rising as projected. Voortman, who has over 30 years of experience as a hydraulic engineer and has worked on flood protection and coastal infrastructure adaptation projects globally, emphasized the importance of understanding the difference between models and real-world local studies for practical applications.
American journalist Michael Shellenberger wrote that all claims about human-caused climate change doubling the rate of sea level rise and putting civilization in grave danger have been proven false after interviewing Voortman. The study's findings may be disappointing for environmental activists who have been predicting rapid sea level rise. However, Voortman expressed shock that such a study had not been conducted before.
According to the study, sea levels were at a low in 1993 and a high in 2020, and natural fluctuations account for these variations. This finding may provide some reassurance that the effects of climate change on sea levels are not as immediate or dire as previously thought.
The study's findings may challenge the frequent media reports of rapid sea level rise based on climate scientists' projections. It serves as a reminder that science is a process of continuous learning and that it is important to approach climate change with a nuanced understanding of the complex factors at play.
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