Resurgence of AfD Following the 2015 Refugee Summer
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been a significant player in German politics since its emergence in 2015, and its growth can be largely attributed to the so-called refugee question. As public debate about immigration policy intensified, voters critical of immigration began to shift their support to the AfD. The party benefited from opposition to immigration policies and fears connected to the refugee influx in Germany at the time.
In the summer of 2015, the AfD was hovering around three to five percent. However, with the refugees, the party found a new core theme, and its poll numbers quickly rose, reaching 11 to 13 percent by summer 2016. Alexander Gauland, the party's vice, described the refugee movement as "a gift for us" at the end of 2015.
The open migration dispute within the Union, fueled in part by former CSU leader Horst Seehofer's criticism of Merkel's policies, is seen as helping the acceptance of the AfD position. The AfD, aside from the CSU, was the only larger party in Germany to position itself directly and very critically of migration.
Political scientist Diehl sees the rise of the AfD as a radicalization of political discourse, with unspeakable theses now becoming accepted and right-wing populists becoming mainstream. The party leader Bernd Lucke failed to secure re-election at the party congress in Essen, and Frauke Petry and Jörg Meuthen took over the leadership together.
The AfD succeeded in framing the refugee movement as a crisis, according to political scientist Paula Diehl. However, Merkel stated that the AfD did not emerge from the refugee crisis, but from the Euro crisis. She pointed out in an ARD interview that she saw parallels in migration policy to her decision on the Euro.
The domestic intelligence agency classified the AfD as securely right-wing extremist, but put the decision on hold after an AfD lawsuit. Populists like the AfD profit from crises, but also exacerbate them through their discourses, according to Diehl's analysis.
Since Merkel's term ended in 2021, the AfD's numbers have risen to 24 to 25 percent. The party's rise to a major party to the right of the Union is a development that was prevented by all of Merkel's predecessors. Merkel denied that her refugee policy made the AfD big, stating that it is no longer her responsibility if the party's numbers have risen since her term ended.
The economic crisis, increasing social inequality, and a strong feeling of not being heard and represented could have provided fertile ground for populism in 2015. However, thematically, the AfD could hardly score points with its former main theme - the financial and euro crisis - as it didn't polarize society much. Theo Müller, a dairy entrepreneur, was seen celebrating with the AfD leader in Bavaria, further highlighting the party's growing influence.
