Rising International Influence and Complex Foreign Policy Strategy of India
In the rapidly evolving global landscape, India finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating complex geopolitical challenges. The Trump presidency, with its potential for continuous disruptions in the global order, has raised concerns in New Delhi. The Modi administration is wary of the U.S.'s seemingly re-hyphenating India and Pakistan, a move that could complicate India's strategic manoeuvres.
India, with the third-largest reserves of rare earth minerals in the world, is heavily reliant on global partners for trade, access to energy, markets, technology, and capital. However, India heavily relies on countries like China for tapping into its rare earth mineral resources, a dependence that could prove problematic in times of geopolitical tension.
The Modi government is assessing whether actions by the second Trump administration are merely tactical maneuvers or signal a deeper, more lasting change in the U.S. strategic posture. The Indian state has sought a multipolar world order since gaining independence in 1947, a strategy that could be tested in the face of a more assertive U.S. and a rising China.
India's strategy of aligning with the U.S. while maintaining relations with Russia, balancing China, and preserving ties with key partners in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia could be affected by sanctions on India for purchasing military equipment from Russia. The pushback against threats from China is fraught with structural asymmetries and geopolitical entanglements that do not lend themselves to simple solutions.
The U.S. response to the April-May 2025 India-Pakistan skirmishes was disappointing to Indian leaders, a sentiment that could further strain Indo-U.S. relations. The main challenge is that, unlike a global power such as the U.S., the willingness and capacity of other middle powers to either counterbalance or support Beijing will depend on their interests, which may or may not align with India's.
A less engaged America, or one that equates the two South Asian nations, risks reviving Cold War-era skepticism of the U.S. within India. The author of the book "The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World" is Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, a seasoned diplomat who offers insights into India's strategic thinking.
As India faces a territorial dispute with China, which is attempting to strategically encircle the nation, India is likely to revert to its Cold War strategy of hedging its bets in the economic realm by strengthening ties with other middle powers to shield itself from the turbulence of a volatile global order. A weakened Russia, facing further sanctions, will become increasingly dependent on China and lose its credibility as a continental counterweight; any loss of Moscow's strategic independence will accelerate China's influence across Eurasia.
In conclusion, India's strategic posture in the 21st century is shaped by a complex interplay of geopolitical forces. As it navigates these challenges, India continues to seek a multipolar world order that respects its sovereignty and promotes its economic interests. The road ahead is uncertain, but India's resilience and strategic acumen promise a dynamic and intriguing chapter in the annals of global politics.
