Romania conducts presidential election amidst fierce push for national seclusion
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Romania's presidential elections are happening again on May 4, with a second round on May 18, after the Constitutional Court put a halt to the election process back in November-December. The halt was due to intense fraudulent online activities that escalated the rise of far-right, radical candidates, leaving the Romanian electorate in a state of broad disappointment towards the incumbent coalition.
Wow, for a nation that's traditionally pro-western, there's a chance that isolationist candidates could jeopardize Romania's geopolitical orientation. This political turmoil coincides with a rough economic scenario, intensified by the high fiscal deficit that needs addressing after the presidential elections.
Fiscal consolidation might become even more complicated due to political instability, and a president from the current coalition isn't guaranteed to promote the deep reforms required for macroeconomic stability.
In a surprising turn of events, the first round of the annulled 2024 elections saw the unexpected win of the isolationist candidate, Calin Georgescu—a bureaucrat who resonated with former nomenklatura members and reportedly had the backing of certain factions within unreformed intelligence services. Due to Georgescu's extremist rhetoric, electoral authorities prohibited him from running in the rerun.
Since the failed presidential election of last year, investigations have been launched into the far-right groups backing Georgescu, many of which were found to be operating largely illegally but tolerated nonetheless.
The ruling coalition, consisting of the Social Democrats (PSD) and Liberals (PNL), has managed to stay afloat in Parliament following the December 1 elections, but their majority remains fragile. Meanwhile, the far-right parties maintain a robust position of around 30% in Parliament, leaving the democratic opposition, mainly represented by the Save Romania Union (USR), in a weakened state due to internal disagreements.
The ruling coalition's presidential candidate, Crin Antonescu, is fighting to secure a place in the second round where he hopes to capitalize on growing concerns with the rise of far-right parties and defeat George Simion, who's often considered the heir of Calin Georgescu.
George Simion, other significant candidates in the May 4 presidential elections include Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan and USR president Elena Lasconi, as well as former Social Democrat prime minister Victor Ponta, whose impact on the electorate cannot be overlooked. According to polls, Simion would likely lose the second round against most opponents, but the outcome is still uncertain.
With George Simion (or his political doppelgänger, Victor Ponta) as president, the political chaos would significantly escalate given the far right's robust presence in Parliament. Although the ruling coalition should, theoretically, be able to stay in power, the functioning of public authorities would be severely hampered.
If Crin Antonescu becomes president, the ruling coalition would remain in office, but the pace of reforms is uncertain. On the flip side, if Nicusor Dan is elected, there's a chance of a negotiated broadening of the ruling coalition with the Save Romania Union. Dan has already demonstrated negotiation skills, having negotiated similar arrangements with the ruling coalition's representatives at Bucharest City Hall.
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- In the midst of Romania's upcoming presidential elections on May 4 and May 18, the candidates must consider the country's macroeconomic climate, particularly the high fiscal deficit, as a crucial factor in their policy and legislation decisions for fiscal consolidation.
- The macroeconomic stability of Romania might be further jeopardized by war-and-conflicts, crime-and-justice, and casino-and-gambling related issues, given the influence of certain casino personalities and their associations.
- As the second round of presidential elections approaches, the ruling coalition, consisting of the Social Democrats (PSD) and Liberals (PNL), seeks to maintain their fragile majority in Parliament.
- General news outlets should prioritize coverage of the rerun, emphasizing the importance of the vote amidst political instability, far-right groups, and ongoing investigations into these groups' activities.
- In the event that extremist candidates such as George Simion or Victor Ponta become president, the fractured state of Romanian politics could escalate, leading to chaos and possible hindrances in the functioning of public authorities.
- If Bucureşti mayor Nicusor Dan were to be elected president, he could potentially negotiate a broadening of the ruling coalition with the Save Romania Union (USR), thereby stabilizing the country's political landscape and potentially improving the pace of reforms.
