Shifting Betting Trends in the Selection of a Novel Pope's Election
May 6, 2025, 06:54h. – May 7, 2025, 08:58h.
Mark Keast Read MoreCatholic Church PoliticsConclavePapal ElectionLas Vegas BettingItalian CardinalPhilippine CardinalCanadian Betting Markets
Stay tuned as the College of Cardinals gears up for their secretive election, the conclave, to elect the next Pope beginning tomorrow.
A Whirlwind Event
Over a hundred cardinals aged 80 or below, hailing from various nations, will engage in heated debates and vote for their candidate. The elected candidate must secure a two-thirds majority, potentially resulting in a new Pope within hours, or it could stretch on for weeks.
Taking a quick peek at the betting markets this fine morning sheds light on the top contenders.
Betting Favorites
In Canada, where you can place a wager on the next Pope, BetMGM has Pietro Parolin, the Italian Vatican Secretary of State, as their favorite at +225. Next in line, with odds of +300, is Luis Antonio Tagle, the Filipino "Asian Pope Francis." Matteo Maria Zuppi, another Italian cardinal, is third with +600 odds.
American Chances
The odds for a potential American Pope are quite far-fetched, with Raymond Leo Burke leading the pack of American cardinals at +3300. Timothy Dolan and Kevin Farrell follow closely behind at +5000 each.
Bets and Predictions
John Ewing from BetMGM states, "Of note, Pietro Parolin opened as a +250 favorite. He has moved to +225 and 23.3% of bets (most) and 32.4% of money (most) is on Parolin to be the next Pope." David Merry, a UK trader for BetVictor, mentioned, "Pope betting has been popular in the UK, but zero bets so far from Canada. Thirty different Cardinals have been backed so far. Peter Turkson is the most popular, who started at 10/1 and is now 11/2."
At the prediction markets, Parolin has a 26% chance, followed closely by Tagle at 23%. Matteo Zuppi ranks third with a 10% chance.
The race is on as cardinals convene to choose the next leader of the Catholic Church. Stay connected as we bring you the latest updates on this thrilling event.
Enrichment Data: The betting favorites to be the next Pope in the 2025 conclave include:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin: He is considered the favorite with odds of 15/8. Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, is known for his diplomatic skills but has faced criticism over past financial controversies[1].
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: Tagle has odds of 5/2. He is popular for his progressive stance and is often referred to as the "Asian Francis." If chosen, he would be the first Asian Pope in history[1][2].
- Cardinal Peter Turkson: With odds of 5/1, Turkson is another strong contender. At 76 years old, he could become the first African Pope in over 1,500 years. He is known for advocating for social justice and climate issues[1].
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: Zuppi has odds of 6/1. He is a moderate and reform-minded voice within the Church, known for his involvement in international peace efforts[1].
- Betting markets suggest Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, as the favorite to be the next Pope with +225 odds.
- Canadian betting markets show Luis Antonio Tagle, the "Asian Pope Francis," as a close second with odds of +300.
- Matteo Maria Zuppi, another Italian cardinal, trails behind with +600 odds in the betting markets.
- Canadian bettors favor Raymond Leo Burke, an American cardinal, with +3300 odds for becoming the next Pope.
- The College of Cardinals, including Italian, Filipino, and Canadian members, will begin the conclave on May 7 to elect the next Pope.
- The cardinal with the most support in prediction markets is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, with a 26% chance of being elected.
- The race for the papal election is gaining attention in casino-and-gambling sectors, with sports-betting lines, prediction markets, and casino-personalities weighing in.
- Responsible-gambling advocates urge bettors to be mindful of their wagers as they follow the papal election trends.
- The conclave and potential big-wins in the sports-betting world add another layer of excitement to the traditional Catholic Church Politics event in Las Vegas and other casino culture centers.
