Significant Bitcoin-Related Economic Developments Coming Up in the Next Few Days
In the world of finance, September is shaping up to be a month of uncertainties. Here's a breakdown of the latest economic data and its potential impact on Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Bitcoin ended August with a 6.47% loss, closing the month at $107,500, according to CoinGecko data. The cryptocurrency reached a record high of $124,545.60 earlier in the year, but recent market fluctuations have raised concerns among investors.
The Federal Reserve is currently facing conflicting data points. While the preliminary Q2 2025 productivity growth is set at +2.4% quarter-over-quarter annualized, the jobs market appears to be weakening. Friday's forecast predicts the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%, up from July's 4.2%. Economic experts expect U.S. initial unemployment claims to have risen to 237,000 for the week ending August 30, 2025, above previous estimates.
These data points are crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to pause rate cuts in September. If the jobs report continues to weaken, it could potentially be a positive catalyst for Bitcoin. A weak jobs report might provide clarity on the Fed's rate path and boost expectations of looser monetary policy, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin.
Xu Han, director of Liquid Fund at HashKey Capital, expects payrolls to come in below consensus, around 40,000-60,000. Han also suggests that hiring is weakening gradually and there could be a risk of larger layoffs ahead.
However, experts remain cautious due to September's bearish seasonality for Bitcoin. Kurt S. Altrichter, founder of Ivory Hill Wealth Advisory, stated that cutting rates "too soon risks reigniting 1970s-style inflation." A downward revision in productivity or an upward revision in unit labor costs could raise concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.
In light of these uncertainties, Han recommends focusing on the medium short-term holder cost basis as Bitcoin enters a more volatile September. All eyes are now on Thursday's initial jobless claims and the August jobs report.
As the month progresses, we will continue to monitor these economic indicators and their potential impact on Bitcoin and the broader market. Stay tuned for more updates.
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