Strong Tesla sales projected for the third quarter, generating questions about the fourth quarter performance
The electric vehicle (EV) market is heating up, and Tesla is leading the charge with its Model Y and ambitious Robotaxi program.
The Model Y Performance and 3+ variants are set to expand their reach in more markets, but they are not anticipated to be major sellers. On the other hand, the affordable Model Y could make waves, with rumours suggesting it could sell for as little as $20,000 in China. Tesla could potentially price it under $30,000 without the tax credit.
Sales of the Model Y in Europe are doing exceptionally well, with some Model Y Performance units available. The refreshed Model Y and Model 3 in China are also performing surprisingly strong. The new Model YL, expected to open for orders in the fourth quarter of 2025 in the US, will start deliveries in China in September 2025, while production and availability in the United States are expected only by the end of 2026, according to Elon Musk.
Tesla's sales in the US, along with Chevrolet and Hyundai, are strong during the third quarter. However, sales in the rest of the world are growing as Tesla expands into new markets, but growth is tempered by strong competition from Chinese brands. European sales for electric cars are lower due to increased competition and brand damage. Ford, for instance, isn't seeing a rush in sales due to not receiving the tax credit.
The release of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China helped boost sales and cement Tesla's reputation for leading-edge technology. Tesla has allowed anyone in the US with an iPhone to download the Robotaxi app and sign up for the waitlist. If Tesla starts meeting its projections for the Robotaxi program, Waymo may struggle to keep up with Tesla's expansion.
Tesla has until the end of 2026 to make its technology work for the Robotaxi program, or investors may lose faith. The new Model YL has been a real hit in China, and if Tesla could fill all orders, it could hit an all-time record in sales.
In a significant move, both Tesla and Waymo are working to expand their Robotaxi programs as quickly as possible. With the expected release of FSD V14, which has 10 times as many parameters, in September, the race for autonomous vehicles is truly on. However, the release is expected to be delayed.
A smaller version of the Model Y, the Model YL, is rumoured to be released in 2026, but its existence is uncertain. Regardless, it's clear that Tesla is pushing the boundaries in the EV and autonomous vehicle markets, setting a high bar for its competitors.
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