Surprising Developments in the Realm of Services and Building Projects in the Second Quarter
In a recent article, Fergus Jimenez-England, Associate Economist at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), has provided an insightful analysis of the UK's macro-economic outlook. However, the authors of the study, titled "Macro-Economic Modelling and Forecasting," are not explicitly listed in the available search results.
Jimenez-England's article, restricted to corporate members, NiGEM subscribers, and NIESR partners, offers a comprehensive forecast of the UK economy. According to the report, GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was 0.3%, a slight improvement from the earlier projection of 0.4% contraction. There's a revised expectation for a 0.5% growth in the third quarter.
However, elevated uncertainty among businesses and weak private consumption pose downside risks to the forecasted growth. The growth in the second quarter was mixed, with services and construction sectors showing stronger-than-expected growth, but the production and construction sectors continuing to contract.
Looking ahead, speculation over policy changes will weigh on economic activity in the coming months. The Chancellor is expected to tighten fiscal policy in the Autumn Budget, with the need to build a substantial fiscal buffer to avoid uncertainty plaguing growth into next year.
For a more detailed forecast, one can refer to the Summer UK Economic Outlook, published last week by NIESR. It offers a complete picture of the UK's economic trajectory in the coming quarters.
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