The strategic significance of the "fortress belt" in Donbass holds great importance for the Ukrainians.
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a significant development has occurred as Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukrainian forces retreat from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before a ceasefire can be called.
The Donbass region, twice the size of Belgium and comprising 9% of Ukraine's territory, is strategically important for Ukraine's defense. It is rich in minerals such as lithium, uranium, titanium, and rare earth elements, but many of these remain untapped in the occupied or contested territories.
The Donbass region, which borders Russia, is predominantly inhabited by Russian-speaking people. Parts of the Donbass have been controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014, and the current population of the region is unclear, but it was around six million in the last census in 2001.
The Donetsk region, including cities like Bakhmut, Mariupol, and Avdiivka, has seen some of the bloodiest battles of the war. The Ukraine has reinforced the "Fortress Belt" in the Donetsk region over the past eleven years, making it difficult for Russian forces to encircle or penetrate.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy considers the Donbass crucial for Ukraine's survival, stating, "It's a matter of the survival of our country." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) explains that such a loss would put Ukraine in "a position that is significantly less defensible than its current line."
Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies based in Kyiv, warns that ceding the Donbass would "open the door to a potential further invasion of Ukraine." Ukrainian officials and experts also warn that ceding the Donbass would have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine's security, potentially opening the way to the cities of Dnipro and Kharkiv.
Notably, the ISW emphasizes that the Donbass region is strategically important for Ukraine's defense. The Ukraine has built a "Fortress Belt" in the Donetsk region, stretching from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the north to Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka in the south. This belt consists of fortified cities and hundreds of kilometers of trenches and minefields.
The current control of the regions is significant. According to an AFP analysis, Russian forces now control 99% of the Luhansk region and 79% of the Donetsk region, including their respective capital cities. In September 2022, Russia declared the Donetsk region, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, annexed.
Despite Putin's demand, Ukraine rejects the withdrawal of its forces from Donetsk and Luhansk. The Donbass region in eastern Ukraine remains a crucial point in ongoing US-Russia negotiations over a possible end to the three and a half year-long conflict.
