Tinubu's Decision on Shea Butter Export Ban: Divergence Among Industry Experts Lasting Six Months

President Bola Tinubu has announced a six-month ban on the export of raw shea nuts, marking a significant shift in Nigeria's agro-economy. This decision is a key component of the Renewed Hope Agenda, aimed at creating value at home, competing abroad, and delivering prosperity.

The ban, which will be gradually implemented from the third quarter of 2025, targets a tenfold increase in export revenue by 2027. The government projects that 99% of the value will come from refined shea products, with the aim of boosting Nigeria's shea value chain to generate around $300 million annually in the short term.

This move is part of an initiative to stimulate local processing and boost value addition in Nigeria's agro-economy. However, concerns have been raised about the potential impact on farmers and collectors, particularly in light of high energy costs, limited access to credit, and poor infrastructure.

Dr. Grace Ajayi, an agricultural extension expert at the University of Abuja, has warned that enforcing the suspension without addressing these issues could lead to losses for farmers and collectors.

Some shea nut exporters, who currently have about $4 million subsisting contracts, may also face serious financial difficulties due to the lack of consultation. Hon. Dele Kelvin Oye, a former National President of NACCIMA, has urged the Federal Government to provide clarity on its policy to avoid such situations.

Shea nuts, often referred to as "women's gold," are a key source of livelihood for thousands of rural women in northern Nigeria. The ban aims to protect this value chain, where 95% of pickers are women, and create jobs locally.

To support this transition, aggregation infrastructure will be established and operationalized in major producing states such as Niger, Kwara, and Kebbi between the third and fourth quarters of 2025. This will help to facilitate local processing and ensure a steady supply for domestic processors.

Customs officers will undergo training, resources will be deployed to key border zones, and surveillance protocols will be introduced to strengthen enforcement against smuggling. An initial performance review will be conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025 to assess the policy's impact on processor utilization, trade formalization, and supply availability.

An industry expert has emphasized the need to establish local capacity to refine shea nuts to avoid unnecessary penalties for exporters. A mid-term policy evaluation will be conducted in the second quarter of 2026, focusing on export structures, rural income gains, and overall sector outcomes.

Dr. Oye has cautioned against hasty policy reversals without adequate transition and broad consultation, highlighting the importance of clarifying the government's goals and implementation strategies.

Regional trade dynamics have made Nigeria increasingly vulnerable as countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, Ghana, and Togo have already banned the export of raw shea nuts to strengthen their domestic processing industries. Nigeria remains the only country in the sub-region still allowing such exports.

Notably, non-oil exports in Nigeria rose to $3.225 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 19.59% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This growth underscores the potential for success in Nigeria's efforts to industrialize its shea nut sector.

As the ban is implemented, it will be crucial to monitor its impact on the livelihoods of rural women, the financial health of exporters, and the overall success of the government's Renewed Hope Agenda.

Tinubu's Decision on Shea Butter Export Ban: Divergence Among Industry Experts Lasting Six Months