Uncovering the Misconception of Digital Warfare and the True Nature of Infiltration Activities
In the digital age, cyber operations have emerged as a significant concern for defense planners, policymakers, and the public alike. These operations, believed to allow states to shift the balance of power and attain strategic gains in ways that were previously impossible without going to war, continue to be a focus of attention.
However, a closer look at the nature of cyber operations reveals that they are not new instruments of power, but rather instruments of subversion. Hacking, for instance, requires reconnaissance, identifying suitable vulnerabilities, and developing means to exploit them - a process that takes time.
Research, such as that conducted by political scientist Yuriy Matsiyevsky, has shown that the exploitation of cyber operations for strategic value involves operational challenges similar to traditional subversion, producing what he terms the "subversive trilemma." This trilemma comprises the operational challenges of speed, intensity, and control.
Speed is essential in any subversive activity, but increasing the intensity of a cyber operation tends to slow down speed and decrease control. Control in cyber operations is also limited, as access to target systems usually remains incomplete and some parts may behave differently than expected.
The uncontrolled spread of cyber operations limits their strategic value, as it can produce additional costs and reduce their net strategic benefit. This was evident in Russia's five major disruptive cyber operations in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which, despite their disruptive effects, ultimately failed to produce strategic value due to operational constraints.
Moreover, the operational challenges in cyber conflict suggest that the strategic value of cyber operations will be modest. Fears of a strategic cyberattack causing a "cyber Pearl Harbor" remain acute, but the reality is that cyber operations, while capable of causing significant disruption, are limited by the subversive trilemma.
Hacking can influence public opinion, disrupt economies, and sabotage critical infrastructure in modern societies. However, upon discovery, victims can delete malware and patch vulnerabilities, requiring stealth in hacking activities. The idea of cyberwarfare involving the exchange of cyber weapons and logic bombs at the speed of light has largely subsided, giving way to a more nuanced understanding of the operational challenges and limitations of cyber operations.
In conclusion, while cyber operations hold great strategic promise, they falter in practice due to the operational trilemma. As such, defense planners, policymakers, and the public should approach the strategic potential of cyber operations with a keen understanding of the operational challenges that limit their effectiveness.
