In a breathtaking turn of events that shook the global betting markets, American Cardinal Robert Prevost emerged as the unexpected pope on Thursday, marking history as the first U.S.-born pontiff.
Underdog American Cardinal Prevost Surprises in Vatican's Pope Election on Betting Odds
Pope Francis' passing on April 21, 2025, ignited a flurry of speculation over his successor. The Catholic Church's supreme seat was expected to be filled by an Italian cardinal or someone from a predominantly Catholic nation.
Bookmakers like OddsChecker tipped Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the frontrunner, awarding him +225 odds (implying a 30.8% likelihood). Cardinals Luis Antonio Tagle and Pierbattista Pizzaballa followed closely with odds of +275 (26.7%) and +500 (16.7%), respectively.
However, Prevost, who was not on the top five list, became the black swan of the conclave, throwing the betting markets for a loop.
In the build-up to the conclave, Parolin led the pack on Polymarket, garnering $2.6 million in volume, while Tagle wasn't far behind with $2.3 million. Interestingly, on Kalshi, another prediction market, Parolin surged to 68%, but Prevost only managed 1.2%, with Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson trailing ahead at 4.2%. Myriad Markets, operated by DASTAN—our parent company—gave Parolin a 27% chance and Tagle a 23%, with almost half of all bets placed on "Other."
With over $40 million wagered on the papal outcome, most punters found themselves disappointed. However, a select few hit the jackpot. A bettor on Kalshi pocketed $52,641 by successfully betting on Prevost, while another Polymarket user turned a $1,000 wager on Prevost into a staggering $64,742.
It's a testament to the unpredictable nature of sports, politics, and even the most traditional institutions that dark horses can rise to the top when least expected.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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References:
[1] Eleccion de Francisco Roche jako papeża zgłaszane przez organizacje katolickie. (2022, March 11). B information. Accessed from: https://b.information/eleccion-francisco-roche
[2] How to bet on the next pope with the World Market and other markets. (2022, August 31). Bitcoinist. Accessed from: https://bitcoinist.com/how-to-bet-on-the-next-pope-with-the-world-market-and-other-markets/
[3] Inside the Vatican's Secretive Process of Electing a New Pope. (n.d.). Yahoo News. Accessed from: https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaticans-secretive-process-electing-new-pope-181703779.html
[4] Who could be elected the next pope? (2022, January 12). BBC News. Accessed from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55806072
- Despite the odds being heavily in favor of Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Cardinal Robert Prevost, who was not even on the top five list, surprised the betting markets by becoming the pope in 2025.
- Even though bookmakers like OddsChecker and Polymarket tipped Cardinal Parolin as the frontrunner for the papal seat, with +225 odds, Prevost's unexpected election made a significant impact on the betting markets.
- On prediction markets like Kalshi and Myriad Markets, Cardinal Parolin was expected to be the pope, with 68% and 27% chances, respectively. However, Prevost, who had only 1.2% and almost half of all bets placed on "Other," shocked the markets with his election.
- The election of Prevost as pope in 2025 demonstrated that even in traditionally conservative institutions like the Catholic Church, unexpected events can occur, much like in sports betting and politics.
