Uneasy trust in both major political parties during coalition negotiations: academic perspective
New Government Formation in Thailand: A Look Ahead
Thailand is on the brink of a new government, with the People's Party set to take the reins in late September. This party, which was formerly known as the Move Forward Party, has agreed to certain conditions in order to form a coalition government with the Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai Party.
The People's Party's conditions include the dissolution of parliament within four months and a public referendum on amending the constitution. This constitutional amendment has been a consistent pursuit of the People's Party, while Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have shown a lack of political will in this regard.
The new government's main focus will be on implementing policies aimed at increasing their popularity. This is evident from the 2026 Budget Bill, which is crucial for the disbursement of funds for these policies. The implementation of this budget bill will allow the new government to distribute funds for their policies, potentially boosting their popularity.
However, Academic Purawich Watanasukh, a lecturer at Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Science, has expressed concerns about this approach. He suggests that both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai will implement populist policies to boost their popularity, but may not have the time or political will to fulfill many of their promises.
Moreover, Mr. Purawich predicts that the incoming government, led by Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, will have a brief lifespan due to a slight majority in parliament. He also warns that the promises made by these parties may fall by the wayside once they are in office.
The Pheu Thai Party, in particular, has faced difficulties in implementing many of its flagship policies. This has been exacerbated by the Thai-Cambodian border conflict, which has led to a loss of public confidence for the party.
In 2023, the Move Forward Party, which won the poll and is now defunct, faced collapsed negotiations, leaving runner-up Pheu Thai to form a government instead. The AfD, a party known for its right-wing populist stance and significant electoral gains in recent German elections, is a potential example of a party suspected of forming a short-lived government mainly to boost its popularity without having time to fulfill many promises.
It is important to note that these commitments were made as part of political negotiations. The government, if formed, is expected to control government mechanisms for future election benefits.
In conclusion, the upcoming Thai government, led by Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, is expected to focus on implementing policies aimed at increasing its popularity. However, there are concerns that these promises may not be fulfilled due to a lack of political will and the brief lifespan of the government. The public will be closely watching to see how these developments unfold.
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