Winter may carry a familiar scent of coal due to increased fossil fuel usage for heat during the cold season.

In the heart of Europe, Poland is navigating a significant transformation in its energy sector. This transition, driven by a variety of factors, including a coal shortage and the rising tide of renewable energy, is reshaping the country's energy landscape.

The coal shortage in Poland has been a pressing issue, with the power sector expected to fall short by 6 million tonnes, and the local council and household sector lacking an additional 5 million tonnes. This deficit, equivalent to 20% of energy consumption in the power sector and 40% of the entire market in the local council and household sector, has led to increased costs. Coal, once readily available from coal yards, now costs twice as much as last year.

The spectre of the coming winter and freezing cold radiators could have been less chilling if more time had been devoted to the necessary energy transformation and less to maintaining the energy status quo, looking for enemies, and chasing down conspiracy theories.

However, the energy landscape is not all gloomy. The Baltic Pipe, capable of supplying up to 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually, is virtually ready to supply gas to Poland. This pipeline, along with the GIPL interconnector, which enables gas transfer from Lithuania, and the terminal in Świnoujście, are expected to help fill the gap left by the missing 5.5 billion cubic metres of Russian gas.

The gas element of the Polish energy mix appears to be the most stable, though it's likely not to be the cheapest. This shift towards gas is a stark contrast to the past, when renewable energy sources (RES) were once considered alien and contrary to the coal-oriented national interest by many elites.

In recent years, Poland has witnessed dynamic growth in PV (photovoltaics), but this growth is not expected to continue at the same pace due to changes in subsidies for smaller, individual users. Despite this, the wind industry remains hopeful about the future.

The liberalization of the 10h-rule, which stalled the development of wind energy in Poland due to restrictions on wind turbine placement, has been a significant step forward. In a country with dense and scattered developments, this liberalization de facto opens up the option to develop wind energy as a branch of renewable energy sources (RES).

The war in Ukraine has had a profound impact on Poland's energy situation. After the escalation of the conflict, the Polish governments under Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz have been significantly involved in promoting the development of renewable energies, emphasizing strategic partnerships for nuclear and renewable energy initiatives, notably with Canada.

Local initiatives are also underway. As of January 2023, Małopolska and two other regions in Poland plan to introduce a ban on using coal-fired boilers for domestic use. In Małopolska alone, there are 300,000 coal-fired heaters that await their removal.

According to estimates by the Polish Smog Alert (PAS), nearly 21,000 heaters should be turned off in the ring around Kraków by 1 January 2023. Furthermore, as of January 2023, some residents of Podhale towns in Poland have run up bank debts in order to buy fuel for the winter due to the coal shortage.

On 24 June 2022, Instrat published data showing that combined, photovoltaics and wind energy yielded more power (26.3%) than the total electricity production from lignite (24.2%). This shift towards renewable energy is a testament to the strides Poland has made in embracing a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.

In conclusion, Poland's energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation. While challenges remain, particularly in the transition from coal to gas and the maintenance of renewable energy growth, the country is making progress towards a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.

Winter may carry a familiar scent of coal due to increased fossil fuel usage for heat during the cold season.